With just one match-day remaining in the 2023-24 Belgium Pro League regular season, every fixture on Sunday night carries seismic weight from the top of the table to the bottom. Here is a data-driven look at where the trophies, European tickets and survival scarves will most likely land.
1. Championship showdown – Union SG vs. Antwerp
Current gap: Union SG 46 pts, Antwerp 44 pts.
Model odds (FiveThirtyEight-style Elo): Union SG 58 % to win the title, Antwerp 42 %.
Key match-up: Union’s Cameron Puertas (7 goals, 9 assists) against Antwerp’s Toby Alderweireld-less back line that conceded six in the last three.
Prediction: 2-2 draw suffices for Union SG to finish first; Antwerp needs a win and will push hard, but Union’s counter is lethal. Expect goals.
2. Europe Play-off seeding – Club Brugge, Genk, Anderlecht, Gent
Club Brugge (42 pts) are locked into third, yet the order behind them matters for two-legged play-off seeding.
Genk (40) host mid-table Cercle Brugge and are 71 % favorites; Anderlecht (39) visit Charleroi whose relegation fears are gone; Gent (38) must win at Sint-Truiden.
Model outcome probability for fourth place (home semi-final): Genk 48 %, Anderlecht 31 %, Gent 21 %.
Prediction: Genk 3-1 Cercle; Anderlecht 2-0 Charleroi; Gent 2-1 STVV → order: Genk, Anderlecht, Gent.
3. Relegation six-pointer – Eupen vs. OH Leuven
Eupen sit 15th, OH Leuven 14th, both on 23 pts but Eupen hold the head-to-head tie-breaker.
Win or stay up; draw and Leuven survive.
Eupen’s xGA since the winter break is the worst in the league (2.1 per match).
Prediction: OH Leuven 2-1 Eupen, ending the Pandas’ five-year top-flight run.
4. Dark-horse Golden Boot – Kasper Dolberg
Dolberg (Union) and Gift Orban (Gent) are tied on 18 goals. Orban will start, but Gent face a defensive Sint-Truiden that has allowed only two big chances in the last 360 minutes. Dolberg, meanwhile, faces an Antwerp side that must attack, leaving space.
Prediction: Dolberg scores once and edges the crown 19-18.
5. Statistical nugget to impress your group chat
No team has ever won the Belgium Pro League regular season after trailing by more than two points entering the final day—good omen for Union SG, who also boast the league’s best expected-goal difference (+28.4).
Bottom line
Betting markets slightly overrate Antwerp’s title chances because of last year’s playoff heroics, but Union’s underlying numbers and home form (unbeaten in 14 at Joseph Marien) make them worthy favorites. In the relegation zone, expect Leuven’s experienced spine—Maehle, Castro-Montes, and midfielder Keita—to do just enough. Whatever happens, do not blink before the full-time whistles; the Belgium Pro League never signs off quietly.
