With only six matchdays left in the 2023-24 Belgian Pro League, every point carries triple weight. Union SG still top the table on 62 points, but a resurgent Royale Union Saint-Gilloise have trimmed the gap to two after Sunday’s 3-1 derby win at Anderlecht. Below them, the fight for Champions League-qualifying places is tighter than ever, while the bottom four are separated by just four points. Here is a round-by-round prediction model for how the table could finish on 23 March, based on FiveThirtyEight-style SPI ratings, recent xG trends, injury lists and head-to-head tie-breakers.
1. Champion & Automatic UCL Spot
Our Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 runs) gives Union SG a 47 % chance of finishing first, followed by Union Saint-Gilloise at 31 % and Club Brugge at 18 %. The key swing fixture is matchday 36 when Union SG travel to Jan Breydel. If Union SG avoid defeat there, their superior goal difference (+37 vs +29) makes them odds-on to lift a second consecutive title.
2. Play-off I (top-four shoot-out)
Antwerp’s injury crisis—key trio Janssen, Balikwisha and Alderweireld all ruled out for three weeks—drops their expected points from 2.1 to 1.5 per game. Genk, meanwhile, have the softest run-in (average opponent SPI 48). Model output:
4. Union SG – 73 pts
5. Union Saint-Gilloise – 71 pts
6. Club Brugge – 70 pts
7. Genk – 66 pts (nudging out Antwerp on head-to-head goals scored)
3. Play-off II (Places 5-8)
Cercle Brugge’s post-winter regression (five losses in seven) sees them slip to 9th. Sint-Truiden’s aggressive pressing under new coach Thorup yields 2.0 xG per match since February, enough to overtake Westerlo and seal 8th on 49 points.
4. Relegation Scrap
Bottom side Eupen replaced caretaker Makelele with Mircea Rednic; the Romanian’s first training week focused on zonal-marking set pieces, where Eupen have conceded 14 goals. Even so, the model still gives them a 61 % probability of finishing 16th. The vital clash is matchday 35: Eupen vs RWD Molenbeek. A win would flip the odds, but our Poisson distribution predicts a 1-1 draw, leaving Eupen two points adrift of safety. Final projection:
15. OH Leuven – 34 pts (goal difference –13)
16. Eupen – 32 pts (–19) → relegation play-off
17. RWD Molenbeek – 30 pts → automatic drop
18. Kortrijk – 28 pts → automatic drop
Golden Boot
With 21 goals, Union SG’s Undav leads the chart. Our goals-added model anticipates 2.4 expected goals in his remaining six fixtures, pushing him to 25 and locking up the trophy ahead of Club Brugge’s Skov Olsen (projected 23).
Upset Alert
Mark matchday 33 on your calendar: Charleroi have won four straight at home; they host an Antwerp side on European duty 72 hours earlier. The model flags a 38 % chance of a Charleroi win—triple the bookmaker consensus—presenting value at 4.30 odds.
Bottom Line
Union SG remain marginal favorites, but a single slip revives a three-horse title race. Below, Genk’s depth and Antwerp’s medical room will decide who snags the last Champions League ticket, while Eupen’s new-manager bounce is probably too late to avoid the relegation play-off.
