The race for the 2023-24 Jupiler Pro League crown is shaping up as the most unpredictable in years. While Royale Union Saint-Gilloise surprised everyone by pushing Club Brugge and eventual winners Genk to the wire last season, the landscape has shifted again with managerial changes, smart recruitment and dual-title pressure in Europe.
Genk enter as slight favourites. Having kept midfield metronome Bryan Heynen and added Croatia U-21 winger Roko Šimić, the champions retained both their core and attacking unpredictability. Their expected-goals (xG) model under Wouter Vrancken was the league’s best (68.5 xGF), and with Joseph Paintsil back fit, they can replicate that efficiency.
Club Brugge, however, have the deepest squad. The return of Noa Lang on loan plus permanent deals for Zeno Debast and Andreas Skov Olsen gives Nicky Hayen tactical elasticity: they can press high or drop into a compact 4-2-3-1. Brugge’s summer outlay (€38 m) dwarfs every rival; if they manage Europa League minutes wisely, they’ll mount a sustained challenge.
Racing Union still feel like the hipster pick. Coach Karel Geraerts swapped Tutonda for talented Dutch left-back Pascal Struijk on loan, keeping their pass-and-press identity intact. Union conceded the fewest big chances (29) last season and their 5-2-3 rest-defence suffocates transitions. The catch: Europa League group-stage fatigue. Squad depth, not philosophy, is their biggest obstacle.
Anderlecht’s resurgence story hinges on youth. Bart Verbruggen replaced the error-prone Van Crombrugge, while 19-year-old Francis Amuzu is tipped for a breakout year. If the Purple & White can nudge their away form (1.41 pts per road game) into the top-three bracket, they’ll lurk throughout spring.
Finally, do not write off Royal Antwerp. Mark van Bommel finally landed a fox-in-the-box in 32-year-old Vincent Janssen, whose 0.65 goals per 90 in La Liga offers a clinical edge Antwerp missed. Combine that with last season’s stingiest set-piece defence (7 goals conceded), and the Great Old can ride Cup momentum into the title picture.
Prediction order:
1. Genk – cohesion plus firepower edges it
2. Club Brugge – squad depth carries them to in a wire-to-wire duel but goalkeeping variance costs two points
3. Union SG – Europa hangover leaves them four shy
4. Antwerp – Janssen’s 18 goals secure Champions League playoff spot
5. Anderlecht – transitional year, yet still finish above Gent and Cercle
Expect another photo finish; just 5-6 points could separate first from fifth when the playoff dust settles.
