After 28 rounds of the 2024-25 Admiral Bundesliga, Red Bull Salzburg lead the table by four points over Sturm Graz, with Rapid Wien lurking six points behind in third. Data-driven models now give Salzburg a 62 % probability of securing a seventh straight title, but underlying numbers suggest the race is tighter than the gap indicates.
Why Salzburg still edge it
1. Post-Winter surge: Since league resumption in February, Salzburg have averaged 2.4 expected goals (xG) per match while posting the lowest non-penalty xG conceded (0.9).
2. Depth advantage: With six fixtures remaining, including the ÖFB Cup semifinal, Jesse Marsch can rotate without a significant drop-off; bench xG contribution leads the league.
3. Key fixture control: The champions still host both Sturm Graz (week 32) and Rapid (week 35) at the Red Bull Arena, where they have dropped only two points all season.
The case for Sturm Graz
Christian Ilzer’s side has the league’s best pressing efficiency (PPDA 8.1) and has limited opponent counter-attacks to just 0.07 xG per game. If they win at Salzburg in late May, our Elo-based Monte Carlo simulation pushes their title odds to 46 %, essentially flipping the script.
Rapid Wien’s outside shot
Rapid require a perfect finish and help from others, yet their underlying attack metrics are elite: 1.89 xG per match since the winter break, led by 19-year-old forward Dion Drena Beljo (0.71 xG/90). If Salzburg and Sturm split points in their head-to-head, Rapid can close to one point with a derby win against Austria Wien in the penultimate round.
Relegation and Europe
At the bottom, WSG Tirol and TSV Hartberg are separated by goal difference; both are projected to finish on 31 points, meaning round-36 survival Sunday could come down to a single moment in added time. Austria Wien, currently fifth, are 68 % likely to grab the final Conference League slot thanks to a softer run-in (average opponent points 1.18 vs. LASK’s 1.46).
Bottom line
Salzburg remain deserved favorites, yet the gap between reputation and performance metrics has never been narrower. Expect maximum drama on 25 May when Sturm arrive in Salzburg—because in the Austria League this season, prediction and reality are separated by one counter-press, one VAR review, or one 90th-minute screamer.
