Sunday’s London derby at Emirates Stadium has every ingredient for instant-classic status, and the Predictz algorithm has processed 42 performance variables to project a razor-thin Arsenal victory. After 10,000 match simulations, Mikel Arteta’s side emerges with 1.97 expected goals (xG) to Chelsea’s 1.41, translating to a 46 % win probability for the Gunners, 28 % for the Blues and 26 % for the draw—margins that mirror the tightest encounters in this rivalry since 2017.
Key model drivers
1. Home attacking depth: Arsenal lead the league in shots per home match (18.6) and Saka–Jesus–Trossard have combined for 15 big chances in the last six league games.
2. Chelsea’s transitional edge: Palmer and Gallagher rank top-five among midfielders for progressive carries, exposing spaces Arsenal leave when Zinchenko inverts.
3. Set-piece contrast: Arsenal have scored 14 set-play goals; Chelsea have conceded 11, the second-worst defensive record in the division.
4. Squad news: Predictz docks Chelsea 0.18 xG if Enzo Fernández (hip) misses out; Arsenal’s model barely shifts if Partey starts on the bench, thanks to Rice’s 87 % pass-completion under pressure.
Projected line-ups
Arsenal (4-3-3): Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko; Ødegaard, Rice, Havertz; Saka, Jesus, Trossard.
Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Petrovic; Gusto, Disasi, Colwill, Cucurella; Caicedo, Gallagher; Palmer, Enzo*, Sterling; Jackson. *50 % chance of starting.
Predictz score simulation
Most frequent result: Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea (22 %).
Correct-score traders can squeeze 9/1 (Bet365) on that line, while BTTS + over 2.5 goals is odds-on at 1.83—landed in four of the last five meetings in all competitions.
Betting angles
• Main pick: Arsenal to win & both teams to score @ 3.10 – value against a market 2.70.
• Prop: Bukayo Saka anytime assist @ 4.00 – averages 0.38 xA per 90 versus Chelsea.
• Long shot: Cole Palmer first goal @ 13.0 – leads Chelsea in non-pen xG since February.
Predictz caution
The model’s 26 % draw probability is the highest for any Arsenal home league fixture this season; if Mauricio Pochettino repeats the 3-2-5 possession press that stunned Etihad, the 3.60 on the stalemate becomes an each-way hedge for cautious accumulators.
Bottom line
Expect fireworks, cards and marginal VAR drama, but the numbers still tilt toward a 2-1 Arsenal triumph that keeps the title race alive and pushes Chelsea’s top-six quest toward a final-day cliff-hanger.
