PredictZ algorithms crunching the numbers ahead of Sunday’s North-West London derby see the tightest margin in years: a 38 % win probability for Arsenal, 34 % for Chelsea and 28 % for the draw, implying an expected goals line of 2.75 with the hosts shading shot volume 13.9 to 12.4. Mikel Arteta’s side is priced at 6/5 (2.20) to make it four league doubles in a row over their rivals, yet Mauricio Pochettino’s Blues arrive unbeaten in five away fixtures, scoring 2.2 goals per game since the winter break.
Expected XIs built from injury reports and training-ground leaks sketch out a 4-3-3 for Arsenal: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko; Ødegaard, Rice, Havertz; Saka, Trossard, Martinelli. Chelsea are tipped to mirror the shape with Petrovic; Gusto, Disasi, Colwill, Cucurella; Caicedo, Gallagher, Enzo; Palmer, Jackson, Mudryk. The key duel flagged by PredictZ’s regression model is the right-sided channel: Saka averages 0.41 xG + xA per 90 when isolated against full-backs who invert inside, exactly the space Cucurella leaves on transition.
Trend data also highlight second-half surges: Arsenal have scored 62 % of league goals after the interval, Chelsea 59 %. That tilts the “both teams to score in the second half” prop to 7/4, while the same model flags Rice to be carded at 11/4; he has committed 1.8 fouls per 90 against ball-dominant sides, and Michael Oliver has brandished yellow to defensive midfielders in 44 % of his 2024 fixtures.
Bottom line: PredictZ simulations ran 10,000 Monte Carlo iterations and returned a most-likely scoreline of 2-1 to Arsenal, clustering 58 % of results between one-goal margins. value hunters should eye Arsenal win & over 2.5 at 11/5, but hedge with Chelsea on the Asian +0.75 handicap if team news shows Sterling and James cleared before kick-off. Whatever the stake, brace for a derby that the stats say will be settled by single digits—on the scoreboard and in the league table.
