London’s fiercest rivalry writes its next chapter on Sunday when Mikel Arteta’s high-flying Arsenal welcome an injury-hit Chelsea to the Emirates, and the data gurus at PredictZ make the Gunners overwhelming 1.66 (60 %) favourites to extend their Premier-league winning streak to seven. Here is a full 360° preview blending PredictZ probability models with on-the-ground insight.
1. PredictZ Snapshot
Home win: 60 %
Draw: 23 %
Away win: 17 %
Expected goals: Arsenal 2.1 – 1.1 Chelsea
Most likely correct scores: 2-0 (14 %), 2-1 (12 %), 1-0 (11 %)
2. Momentum & League Context
Arsenal have averaged 2.4 points per match since the World Cup, scoring 2.2 goals and allowing just 0.7 xGA per game. Chelsea, conversely, have taken one point from the last 12 available, mustered only four goals in that stretch, and rank 15th for non-penalty xG in 2023. PredictZ’s Elo-adjusted ratings now place the gap between the clubs at an eight-year high (ARS 1893 vs CHE 1781).
3. Tactical Chessboard
Arteta is expected to stick with the 4-3-3 that dismantled Spurs, using Zinchenko as an inverted left-back to overload Chelsea’s right flank where Reece James remains sidelined. The PredictZ algorithm flags Bukayo Saka as the likeliest anytime scorer (price 2.40) thanks to his 0.48 xG + xA per 90 versus makeshift full-backs.
Mauricio Pochettino, still without a natural striker, may pivot to a 3-5-2, pushing Sterling and Palmer as dual false nines to exploit the space behind Arsenal’s advanced full-backs. PredictZ gives Raheem Sterling a 22 % chance of scoring—Chelsea’s highest—partly because he draws 2.3 fouls per match in zones that could earn dangerous set-pieces.
4. Key Battles
• Rice vs Caicedo: Arsenal’s £105 m man wins 63 % of defensive duels; Caicedo sits at 55 %. PredictZ rates this as the duel most correlated with final outcome (r = 0.41).
• Saliba vs Jackson: Chelsea’s striker has taken 18 shots without scoring this season; Saliba’s positional numbers show he allows only 0.08 xGA per shot faced.
• Set-pieces: Arsenal lead the league with 29 % of goals from dead balls; Chelsea concede 0.28 xGA per match on them—PredictZ flags “Arsenal to score from a set-play” at 2.10 as value.
5. Injury Room
Arsenal: Timber (ACL) out; Partey (thigh) 70 % doubt.
Chelsea: James, Fofana, Nkunka, Lavia, Chilwell all ruled out; Enzo Fernández faces late fitness test on swollen ankle.
6. Betting Angles Backed by PredictZ
• Main bet: Arsenal -1 Asian handicap @ 1.97 (implied 53 %)—PredictZ fair price 1.83 (implied 57 %).
• Value prop: Over 2.5 Arsenal goals @ 3.75—Model price 3.30.
• Same-game multi: Saka 1+ shot on target + Arsenal win @ 2.25.
• Long shot: 3-1 correct score @ 13.0—PredictZ true probability 9 %, so +EV versus market 7 %.
7. Scoreline Forecast
A fast start similar to the 5-0 win over Sheffield United is improbable—Chelsea’s low block under Pochettino has limited opponents to 0.9 first-half xGA in the last four—but once Rice establishes midfield control, gaps should appear. PredictZ Monte Carlo simulation runs 10,000 iterations and returns the median scoreline: Arsenal 2 Chelsea 1, with 62 % probability of at least one second-half goal after the 67th minute.
8. Bottom Line
Everything from underlying numbers to personnel shortages points one way. Unless Chelsea can replicate their 2021 Anfield defensive masterclass, the Emirates faithful should celebrate a seventh straight victory that keeps Arsenal top of the table. Gamble responsibly, but if you trust the maths, the Gunners at 1.66 straight win is as close to “banker” as the Premier League offers.
