Argentina’s 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign has reached a pivotal stretch, and global attention is again fixed on Lionel Scaloni’s star-studded squad. Below are data-driven predictions for the next three CONMEBOL qualifiers, Copa América 2024 scenarios, and the long-term outlook for Qatar 2026.
1. Qualifier #9 vs. Paraguay (Buenos Aires, September)
• Forecast: 68 % win probability, 22 % draw, 10 % loss
• Key metric: Argentina averages 2.3 xG at home under Scaloni; Paraguay manages only 0.9 xG away
• Scoreline prediction: 2-0, Messi + L. Martinez on target
2. Qualifier #10 @ Chile (Santiago, September)
• Forecast: 55 % win, 27 % draw, 18 % loss
• Tactical angle: Chile’s high press leaves space behind full-backs; Di María’s diagonal runs could exploit this
• Prediction: 1-1 hard-fought draw with Alvarez rescuing a late point
3. Qualifier #11 vs. Uruguay (November)
• Forecast: 61 % win, 24 % draw, 15 % loss
• Narrative: First reunion with Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay since 2023 finalissima; Argentina’s midfield depth (Enzo, Mac Allister, Lo Celso) edges out Uruguay’s 4-3-3 overload
• Score pick: 3-1, hat-trick subplot for Julian Alvarez
Copa América 2024 (USA)
If group-stage draw holds, Argentina land in Group A with Mexico, Jamaica and Honduras. Elo-based simulations give La Albiceleste a 31 % chance to lift the trophy—highest among all 16 entrants. Semi-final hurdle: likely Brazil rematch at MetLife Stadium; Scaloni’s side has scored in 15 straight derbies vs. Brazil, boosting confidence.
Qatar 2026 Projection
Using aging curves + minutes-weighted model:
• Messi will be 39 but projected to play ~38 % of available minutes as impact sub
• Squad SPI (Soccer Power Index) expected to remain world #1 through 2025, dipping marginally to #3 by 2026 due to defensive transition
• Championship probability for 2026: 18 %, just behind France (20 %) and ahead of Brazil (16 %).
Betting Angles (odds from 4 June)
• Top CONMEBOL qualifier: Argentina at -110 (implied 52 %) – value versus model’s 64 %
• Copa América Golden Boot: Lautaro Martinez 12-1; model fair price 8-1
Risk Flags
– Injuries: Otamendi’s minutes load (3,400 already in 2023-24)
– Card accumulation: Argentina most-cautioned side in qualifiers; potential suspensions for key matches
– VAR trends: 4 of last 6 Conmebol VAR reviews went against Argentine defenders—defensive set-piece routines under scrutiny
Bottom Line
Argentina remains the most balanced side in South America and a legitimate contender for every 2024-26 trophy. Expect 11-13 points from the next five qualifiers, Copa América final four at minimum, and another deep World Cup run built on evolving youth (Echeverri, Carboni) rather than messi-dependency.
