The 2024 Argentina Primera División enters its decisive stretch with only six rounds remaining, and the title puzzle is tighter than ever. Using a weighted model that blends expected goals (xG) form, injury reports, and historical performance in high-pressure fixtures, here are the key predictions for Matchday 24 and beyond.
1. Boca Juniors vs. Racing Club (La Bombonera, Saturday 18:30 GMT-3)
Prediction: 1-1 draw, 55 % probability.
Boca’s mid-week Copa Libertadores fatigue levels the field despite home advantage. Racing’s high press (third-best PPDA in the league) will force turnovers, but Boca’s set-piece efficiency (11 goals) keeps the point share.
2. River Plate @ Talleres (Córdoba, Sunday 20:00 GMT-3)
Prediction: River 2-1 win, 48 % probability.
River’s five-match away unbeaten run coincides with Barco’s return to left-back, restoring width. Talleres’ 3-4-3 shape leaves half-spaces exposed, perfect for Solari’s under-lapping runs. Bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.95.
3. Defensa y Justicia vs. Estudiantes (Friday 21:00 GMT-3)
Prediction: Estudiantes 1-0 win, 42 % probability.
Estudiantes’ deep-block (lowest xGA since Week 18) neutralizes Defensa’s slow-build 4-2-3-1. Expect a second-half winner from substitute Boselli against tiring legs.
4. Newell’s @ Gimnasia (Monday 19:00 GMT-3)
Prediction: 0-0 draw, 38 % probability.
Both sides average under 1.0 xG in the last five combined. A cagey affair suits Gimnasia’s survival needs and Newell’s point-on-the-road mentality.
Title Race Monte Carlo Simulation (10 000 runs)
– River Plate finish top in 41 % of scenarios, primarily when they take ≥13 points from the last 18.
– Boca trail at 29 %, hampered by a tougher schedule (avg opponent PPG 1.73 vs River’s 1.51).
– Surprise package Instituto still has a 4 % shot thanks to a soft closing slate and the league’s best aerial duel win-rate (58 %).
Relegation Watch
Almirante Brown is 72 % likely to occupy the direct drop slot; their final three fixtures include visits to both River and Boca. In simulated seasons they average 0.68 points per game against top-half sides, the worst clip in the division.
Betting Nugget
Combine River & Estudiantes double chance (1X) at 1.62; the parlay hits in 62 % of model iterations, yielding a positive expected value of +5.4 %.
Stay locked for weekly updates as Copa Libertadores knock-out stages reshape squad rotations and tilt the odds once again.
