Matchday 16 of the Argentine Primera División arrives with title hopefuls Boca Juniors and Defensa y Justicia separated by a single point at the summit, while the bottom four clubs are still searching for their first win of the 2024 season. Using a weighted model that blends expected goals (xG), player availability, travel distance, elevation gaps and recent form, we’ve simulated every fixture 10,000 times to surface the likeliest outcomes and the best odds still available on the global market.
Friday night opener: Platense vs Lanús
Platense’s 4-4-2 block has conceded only 0.91 xGA per game at home, but Lanús has progressed the ball 7% faster since the arrival of midfielder Ángel González. Model output: 41% draw, 36% Lanús, 23% Platense. Bookmakers have priced Lanús at 2.70, implying 37% probability—essentially a fair line, yet the draw at 3.20 offers marginal value if you foresee a cagey 1-1.
Saturday spotlight: River Plate vs Central Córdoba (SdE)
River’s absences (Nicolás de la Cruz on international duty, Paulo Díaz suspended) shift the midfield balance, but Central Córdoba still carry the league’s worst away xG differential (-0.78 per 90). Simulation says 62% River win, 23% draw, 15% Central Córdoba upset. The parlay of River to win & over 1.5 goals pays 1.95 and hits in 59% of runs, giving a 7% edge over the implied probability.
Sunday superclásico atmosphere without the names: Racing vs Boca Juniors
Racing’s pressing index has spiked under coach Gustavo Costas, yet Boca leads the league in direct-ball efficiency off turnovers. Our model grades Boca as 39% favourites, Racing 33%, draw 28%. With both sides likely to rotate after mid-week Copa Libertadores exertion, the under 2.5 goals line at 1.83 (implied 55%) aligns with a 61% historical hit rate when these sides meet at the Cilindro.
Relegation six-pointer: Aldosivi vs Tigre
Aldosivi’s average recovery line is the deepest in the division (32.4 m from their own goal), inviting Tigre’s wing-backs forward. Expected goals swing 1.55–1.20 in Tigre’s favour, translating to 46% win probability. Sportsbooks post 2.45 on an away win, giving a tidy 5% value cushion; stake half-unit given Tigre’s road win frequency of only 28% last calendar year.
High-plains handicap: Talleres (Córdoba) vs Newell’s
At 500 m above sea level Talleres enjoy the joint-largest home-elevation edge in the league. Factor in Newell’s poor 0.96 away xGF and the simulation lands on 52% home win. Asian Handicap Talleres -0.25 at 1.86 pays out if they win, half-stake back if it’s a draw; model frequency: 54%, creating a 2% ROI.
Long-shot flutter
Defensa y Justicia visit Gimnasia on Monday with both teams on short rest. The model tags a 13% chance of a 2-3 correct scoreline; Betfair offers 41.0, implying 2.4%. Even accounting for variance, that’s a positive-expectation micro-bet for small stakes.
Bankroll reminder
Argentine football’s historical home-win rate sits at 46%, but this season early fatigue from expanded continental comps has trimmed it to 41%. Resist loading heavy on parlays; instead, isolate edges of 4% or larger and stake flat 1% units to absorb the league’s inherent volatility.
