Round 12 of the Argentina Primera A arrives with the title race tightening and relegation ghosts haunting more than half the table. Below are data-driven projections for every match, plus the angles worth a flutter.
1. Boca Juniors vs. Central Córdoba (SdE) – Friday 21:00 GMT-3
Expected XI: Boca switch to 4-3-3 with Zeballos replacing the injured Villa.
Key stat: Boca’s xG differential at La Bombonera is +1.34 per 90, best in the league.
Prediction: 2-0 Boca. Bet: Boca -1 Asian handicap @ 1.80.
2. River Plate @ Platense – Saturday 17:00
River’s mid-week Copa grind means rotation; Almeyda will rest De La Cruz and Paulo Díaz. Platense’s low-block 5-4-1 has conceded only 3 goals from open play at home all year.
Model says 58 % chance of River win, 26 % draw, 16 % upset.
Value: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.95; 1-1 correct score is a 12 % probability outlier priced @ 9.0.
3. Racing vs. Defensa y Justicia – Saturday 19:30
Racing’s high press forces 14.7 high turnovers per match (2nd only to Newell’s). Defensa’s build-up suffers when Romero drops deep.
Forecast: Racing 3-1. Prop: Racing over 1.5 team goals @ 1.66.
4. Estudiantes @ Tigre – Sunday 15:00
Tigre’s set-piece defence has leaked 7 goals (league-worst). Estudiantes target man Boselli averages 0.56 xG/90 from headers alone.
Bet: Estudiantes to score first half @ 1.73.
5. Rosario Central vs. Newell’s – Sunday 17:30 (Clásico Rosarino)
Derby entropy: red cards in 3 of last 5 meetings. Expect cards market to dominate.
Predicted line: 1-1 (35 %). Bet: Over 4.5 cards @ 1.90.
6. Gimnasia @ Banfield – Monday 19:00
Banfield’s direct style (3rd-lowest passes per sequence) meets Gimnasia’s 3-4-3 that concedes wide areas.
Model: 48 % Banfield, 30 % draw, 22 % Gimnasia.
Value: Draw-no-stake on Gimnasia @ 2.25.
7. Arsenal vs. Colón – Tuesday 17:00
Relegation six-pointer. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI gives both sides <1 % chance of surviving the average table.
Forecast cagey: 0-0 (22 %), under 1.5 total goals @ 2.40.
8. Sarmiento @ Talleres – Tuesday 19:30
Talleres’ home xGA is 0.71, but Sarmiento’s direct counters create 0.13 xG per fast attack (4th-best).
Bet: Both teams to score – NO @ 1.65.
9. Lanús vs. Aldosivi – Wednesday 21:00
Lanús finally found form with 4 straight wins; Aldosivi have lost 6 away on the bounce.
Prediction: 2-1 Lanús. Prop: Lanús win & BTTS @ 3.75.
10. Independiente vs. Vélez – Thursday 19:00
Independiente’s PPDA jumped from 8.1 to 11.4 after L. Romero’s injury. Vélez’s double-10 setup exploits half-spaces.
Forecast: 1-2 Vélez. Bet: Vélez double chance @ 1.55.
11. Huracán @ Barracas Central – Thursday 21:30
Barracas’ 3-5-2 morphs to 5-4-1 without the ball, allowing only 8.2 shots per home game.
Model: 0-0 (28 %). Bet: Under 2 goals @ 1.83.
12. Argentinos Juniors vs. Unión – Friday 21:00 (closing the round)
Argentinos’ pressing traps force 42 % of opponent passes backward. Unión’s long-ball bypass rate is league-lowest (9 %).
Prediction: 1-0 Argentinos. Prop: First-half correct score 0-0 @ 2.60.
Season-long simulation update
After 11 rounds our Elo-style model gives these title probabilities:
River Plate 31 %, Boca 24 %, Racing 15 %, Estudiantes 11 %, Defensa 8 %.
Relegation (average table) most likely trio: Aldosivi 78 %, Tigre 65 %, Arsenal 54 %.
Banker double this round
Racing win + Talleres clean sheet pays @ 2.45 (implied 40 %, model 46 %).
Long-shot punters can combine Estudiantes HT lead, Lanús win & Vélez win into a 20-1 same-game parlay.
Whatever you play, stake responsibly and enjoy the chaos that only Argentine football can deliver.
