The penultimate Apertura weekend looms large with five clubs separated by a single point at the summit, making Argentina Primera A predictions trickier—and more rewarding—than ever. Here is the data-driven outlook for Matchday 22, complete with projected scorelines, expected goals (xG) stripes and three betting edges that still carry positive expected value.
1. River Plate vs. Banfield – Saturday 18:00 GMT-3
Projected scoreline: 2-0
River’s six-match winning streak is backed by 2.34 xG per 90 since the international break. Banfield’s 4-4-2 block has conceded the most big chances (17) in that same span. With Armani back in goal and Solari finding half-space pockets at will, the Millionarios cover –1.75 Asian handicap at 1.97. Under 2.5 goals is actually mispriced at 2.25; expect an early kill followed by tempo management.
2. Boca Juniors vs. Instituto – Sunday 16:00 GMT-3
Projected scoreline: 1-1
Boca’s six-home-match shut-out streak distorts market perception; Instituto’s 5-3-2 low block has yielded only 0.91 xGA away from Alto Cordoba. Once the xG correction arrives, the draw at 4.10 looks obese. Same-game multi: draw + under 2.5 pays 6.80, implied 14.7 %, model says 22 %.
3. Talleres vs. Rosario Central – Sunday 19:30 GMT-3
Projected scoreline: 1-0
Talleres’ direct verticality under coach Medina feasts on Central’s ageing double-pivot, while Central’s 3-4-2-1 shape leaves the left channel exposed. Federico Girotti is averaging 0.69 xG/90 since the switch to a front two; prop bet ‘Girotti anytime’ at 2.65 rates a 4 % edge.
4. Racing vs. Newell’s – Monday 20:00 GMT-3
Projected scoreline: 1-2
Racing’s high line is creaking: 5.18 passes per defensive action (PPDA) over the last four, and Newell’s have the quickest transition speed in the league (7.2 sec avg). Newell’s double-chance at 1.83 is the banker leg for parlays.
5. Godoy Cruz vs. Defensa y Justicia – Monday 17:00 GMT-3
Projected scoreline: 2-1
Godoy’s altitude-less home is still a fortress (W7-D1-L1). Against a Defenza side travelling 1,300 km on a three-day turn-around, the Tomba win to-nil has crept out to 3.40. Even money on a multi: Godoy win + both teams to score NO.
Title-race Monte Carlo
Ten thousand season simulations give River Plate a 41 % chance to lift the Apertura trophy, Boca 26 %, Talleres 17 %, Racing 11 % and Godoy 5 %. The remaining 6 % is a chaos scenario that ends in a five-way playoff.
Long-shot flier: Instituto to finish top-four at 26.0 (implied 3.8 % actionable when true probability sits at 7 %).
Bankroll management
Because the title race injects extra variance, stake sizing is capped at 0.75 units per single and 0.25 units per long shot. All prices referenced are Pinnacle closing lines as of Thursday 10:00 GMT-3; shop early—Argentine money can swing 12–15 cents inside a training-report window.
Bottom line
Don’t chase the table-toppers blindly; oddsmakers have compressed their lines. The value instead hides in draw prices on low-block visitors and overlooked prop markets tied to pressing-match metrics. Bet selective, not emotional, and enjoy the most combustible finish the Primera A has offered in a decade.
