Round 27 of the Argentine Liga Profesional arrives with title hopes, Copa Libertadores quests, and relegation fears all still on a knife-edge. Below are data-driven outlooks for the five most compelling fixtures, plus one under-the-radar prop that sportsbooks continue to mis-price.
1. River Plate vs. Central Córdoba (Estadio Monumental, viernes 21:30 GMT-3)
Projected xG: River 2.3 – 0.7 Central Córdoba
Odds: River 1.40 | Draw 4.50 | Central 8.00
River have won their last six league games by an aggregate 14-2 and averaged 2.41 xGF in that span. Central Córdoba’s away record is the second-worst in the division (0.9 xGA per match, 5 goals scored in 12 trips). With Palavecino and Solari back in full training, expect Martín Demichelis to rotate just enough to keep legs fresh for the Copa Libertadores mid-week, yet still cruise.
Best bet: River -1.5 Asian handicap @ 1.95.
2. Boca Juniors @ Godoy Cruz (Estadio Malvinas Argentinas, sábado 18:00)
Projected xG: Godoy 1.1 – 1.2 Boca
Odds: Godoy 3.40 | Draw 3.20 | Boca 2.20
Godoy’s high press has faded—only two wins in nine—and Boca’s 3-5-2 under Mariano Herrón finally looks balanced (four clean sheets in five). Edinson Cavani trained normally after a thigh scare; if he starts, Boca’s +0.5 line is massive value. If he’s benched, wait for in-play odds once team sheets drop. Lean: Boca 0.0 AH @ 1.70.
3. San Lorenzo vs. Racing Club (Pedro Bidegain, domingo 17:00)
Projected xG: 1.0 – 1.1
Odds: San Lorenzo 2.70 | Draw 3.00 | Racing 2.80
The “Newell’s Old Boys derby” subplot is gone, but the tactical chess remains. Rubén Insúa has turned San Lorenzo into the league’s stingiest defence (0.76 xGA/90) while Racing’s Acuña-Godoy partnership has created the most big chances (28) since week 15. With both sides likely to cancel each other out, unders are the only angle.
Best bet: Under 2.0 goals @ 1.83 (cash out trigger after one early goal).
4. Estudiantes @ Defensa y Justicia (lunes 20:30)
Projected xG: Defensa 1.3 – 1.0 Estudiantes
Odds: Defensa 2.25 | Draw 3.10 | Estudiantes 3.40
Estudiantes’ Europa League hangover is real—they’ve earned one point from the last 12 available and travelled 18,000 km round-trip to Chile. Defensa still harbour outside Libertadores hopes and boast the best set-piece conversion (31 %) in the league. Back the home side on the moneyline, but only at 2.30 or better.
5. Rosario Central vs. Newell’s (Clásico Rosarino, domingo 19:30)
Projected xG: 1.2 – 1.0
Odds: Rosario 2.30 | Draw 3.10 | Newell’s 3.20
In the last eight clásicos only once have we seen more than two goals. Expect caginess: Miguel Ángel Russo’s 4-4-2 block yields a league-low 6.4 final-third entries conceded per game, while Newell’s have scored first in just 4 of 25 matches. A repeat of the 0-0 from April is plausible, yet 3.50 for the correct score is too short. Instead, back both teams to score – NO @ 1.80.
Value Prop of the Week
Player shots on target: Valentín Carboni (Monza loanee, currently starting for Instituto) has averaged 1.9 SOT/90 when playing >60 minutes. Books post 0.5 SOT line at 1.83 versus Banfield’s slow full-backs. Institute are away underdogs, so the line isn’t steamed. Stake: 1 unit.
Model Summary
Using Elo-based simulations (10,000 runs) updated with player-level minutes, injuries and travel distance, the most likely top four at season’s end are:
River Plate 71 % to finish top, Racing 17 %, Boca 8 %, San Lorenzo 4 %. Relegation (promedio) still points toward Barracas Central (38 % drop) and Instituto (29 %).
Bet responsibly, shop the line, and enjoy another wild weekend of Argentine football.
