The 2024 Torneo Clausura is only weeks away, and the hottest question among River Plate and Boca Juniors fans is whether anyone can stop the Millionaires. After River’s ruthless 2–0 win in the Superclásico and their eight-point cushion at the top of the aggregate table, most statistical models now give Marcelo Gallardo’s side a 57 % probability of lifting the domestic title. Using an Elo-based simulation that weights recent form, expected goals (xG) difference, and squad depth, we project the final standings as follows:
1. River Plate – 68 pts (GD +34)
2. Talleres (C) – 61 pts (GD +18)
3. Boca Juniors – 59 pts (GD +15)
4. San Lorenzo – 58 pts (GD +11)
5. Defensa y Justicia – 56 pts (GD +9)
While Boca’s winter reinforcements—especially the loan return of midfielder Alan Varela—add 2.4 defensive actions per 90, the model still sees them conceding too many high-value chances against pressing sides. Talleres, led by Walter Ribonetto’s aerial dominance (3.1 clearances/90, 68 % duel success), are tipped to edge Boca on goal difference thanks to a softer run-in: their remaining five away games are against teams currently in the bottom half.
The dark horse is Instituto. The newly promoted Córdoba side has generated 1.78 xG per match since switching to a 4-2-3-1, and our Monte Carlo run places them in the Copa Libertadores qualification spots 31 % of the time—a remarkable feat for a squad whose market value is ninth-lowest in the division.
Relegation watch looks bleak for Arsenal de Sarandí. With only 0.86 points per game and an ageing back line conceding 1.91 xGA per match, the model gives them a 72 % chance of finishing in the bottom four. Platense and Sarmiento are marginally safer, but any injury to key strikers could tilt the probabilities within a fortnight.
Bottom line: unless Boca finds a way to turn 55 % xG into goals instead of their current 44 % conversion rate, River will parade down Avenida del Libertador again in May. Bet on fireworks, but statistically, the title is already drifting toward Núñez.
