The 2024 Africa Cup of Nations is shaping up to be the most open AFCON in years, and the numbers back the chaos. According to Opta’s pre-tournament model, only 3.4 points separate the top eight nations in expected group-stage points, the smallest gap since 2008. That parity makes predictions tough—and more fun—so here’s a data-driven forecast that still leaves room for the tournament’s trademark madness.
Group-stage surprises
Group C (Senegal, Cameroon, Guinea, Gambia) is the only quartet where every team’s implied probability to qualify is between 38 % and 66 %. The model flags Guinea’s Serhou Guirassy as the differential striker; he averages 0.78 non-penalty xG per 90 for Stuttgart this season, a better clip than any CF in the field. Guinea to pip Cameroon for second place is the boldest group-stage call.
Group D looks lopsided on paper, yet Egypt’s defensive record sans injured keeper Mohamed El Shenawy (1.51 xGA per game in the last eight matches) opens a path for Ghana’s new-look midfield of Mohammed Kudus and Salis Abdul Samed. Bet on Ghana topping the group at +220 rather than Egypt at -110.
Dark horses who can reach the semis
1. Mauritania: The lowest-ranked FIFA side ever to qualify twice in a row, but their 4-1-4-1 block conceded only five goals in eight qualifying games. Coach Amir Abdou is a cup specialist—he took Comoros to the last 16 in 2021. Drawn into a tame Group B, they can frustrate Algeria the way Equatorial Guinea did in 2021. Odds of 28-1 to reach the semis carry EV.
2. Zambia: Averaging 2.19 xG for per 90 in qualifiers despite missing Fashion Sakala for three matches. Edward Chilufya’s vertical runs give them transition punch, and with Morocco/DR Congo in Group F, second place is realistic. From there a kind draw could see them replicate 2012 magic.
Golden Boot pick
The bracket matters: the top scorer will likely come from a team that wins its group and faces third-placed opposition in the round of 16. Victor Osimani’s Nigeria project to do just that, and he still leads the field in shots per 90 (4.2) for Napoli. Even at 6-1, he’s value before the market realizes Nigeria’s pathway is cleaner than Egypt’s or Algeria’s.
Tournament winner
Senegal remains the most complete side—no team allowed fewer expected goals in qualifying (0.45 xGA per match), and they kept the same back five that won the 2021 final. Sadio Mané’s non-penalty xG+xA rate of 0.91 per 90 since joining Al-Nassr is actually up from his last Liverpool season. Depth is the final separator: Pape Matar Sarr and Cheick Doucouré offer double-pivot insurance if Idrissa Gueye fades.
Morocco looks sexier after their World Cup run, but AFCON pressure is different; the Atlas Lions have exited on penalties in three of their last four quarter-finals. Hold your nose on the short price and back Senegal at +500 for a repeat.
Final forecast
Quarter-finals: Senegal vs Morocco, Nigeria vs Egypt, Algeria vs Ghana, Cameroon vs Ivory Coast.
Semi-finals: Senegal over Algeria, Nigeria past Ivory Coast.
Final: Senegal 2-1 Nigeria—Mane wins Golden Ball, Osimani Golden Boot, and Aliou Cisse becomes the first coach to lift AFCON twice since Hassan Shehata.
