Matchday 18 of the 2024 Argentina Primera Nacional is shaping up to be the most unpredictable yet, with promotion hopes and relegation fears colliding up and down the table. Below are data-driven picks, model projections and the storylines worth watching before Saturday’s 15:30 ART kickoff slate.
1. Estudiantes (BA) vs. Almirante Brown
Model edge: Estudiantes 58 % win prob, fair odds 1.72, market pays 2.05
Why bet: Brown have lost five straight away matches and their expected-goals difference on the road (-0.74 per 90) is second-worst in the zone. Estudiantes’ pressing index has risen 11 % since coach Gareca switched to a 4-3-3, creating 5.2 high turnovers per game. With Brown missing left-back Álvarez (suspension) and creative midfielder Sánchez (thigh), the value sits with the hosts.
2. Tigre vs. Arsenal
Model edge: Draw 32 %, fair odds 3.10, market pays 3.40
Tactical note: Tigre’s direct style (fourth-lowest passes per sequence) meets an Arsenal side that has drawn seven of its last ten after taking the lead. When tied after 60 minutes, both sides drop into a conservative 4-5-1, producing the league’s second-lowest pace in that game-state. An each-way stab on 1-1 at 6.50 is the derivative play.
3. Brown (A) vs. Chacarita
Model edge: Chacarita double-chance 62 %, fair odds 1.61, market 1.80
The north-west derby sees Brown de Adrogué winless in six and shipping the first goal in five. Chacarita’s new loanee striker, López, already has three goals from 1.9 xG since arriving from Lanús, and Brown’s 32-year-old centre-back pairing ranks in the 27th percentile for defensive duel win-rate. Back Chacarita +0.25 on the Asian handicap.
4. Quilmes vs. All Boys
High-downside parlay builder: Under 2.0 goals pays 1.95
Quilmes matches average 1.72 total xG, lowest in the league, while All Boys have scored more than once in just two of eleven away fixtures. Four of the last five at the Centenario finished 0-0 or 1-0, and early weather forecasts show 25 km/h wind gusts—perfect for another rock-low scoring affair.
5. Santamarina vs. Defensores de Belgrano
Value longshot: Santamarina outright at 4.20
The market is pricing Defensores like a top-half side, but their away record (1-3-6) tells another story. Expected goals say Santamarina have been the fifth-unluckiest team in attack; their 13.8 xG have turned into only nine actual goals. Even a modest shooting-spike could sink a Belgrano outfit that concedes 52 % of goals from set pieces—Santamarina’s speciality (eight corners & indirect free-kick goals so far).
Accumulator (all 1-unit flat stake)
Estudiantes & Chacarita double-chance @ 2.05 × 1.80 → 3.69
Tigre 1-1 correct score @ 6.50 (0.5 u)
Quilmes under 2.0 @ 1.95
Projected table after MD18 (top-4 average of 10k Monte Carlo runs)
1) Godoy Cruz 38 pts
2) Huracán 36
3) Estudiantes (BA) 35
4) Tigre 34
Relegation playoff line (average 38th place)
38) Santamarina 14 pts
39) Brown (A) 13
40) Atlanta 11
Final word: bankroll responsibly, shop the line for at least 0.05 price improvement, and expect heavy in-play rotation—six sides compete in Copa Argentina midweek ties, so minute 70+ fatigue edges could be the difference between a push and a full payout.
