The final act of the 2023-24 League Two season is upon us, and the table is tighter than a drum. With automatic promotion, play-off places, and survival still undecided, every tackle on 27 April could echo into next summer. Here is a data-driven look at the nine fixtures most likely to swing the narrative.
1. Stockport County vs. Sutton United
Stockport need one point to guarantee the title; Sutton need a miracle to stay up. Expected Goals (xG) models give County a 72 % win probability, but Sutton have scored first in their last four away matches. If the Hatters concede early, nerves could spread through Edgeley Park. Prediction: 2-1 Stockport, but only after 70 anxious minutes.
2. Wrexham at home to Reading
The Hollywood-owned Welshmen sit third, level on points with Mansfield but with a game in hand. Reading, still adjusting to life in the fourth tier, have the division’s best away expected-goals difference since February. A draw (1-1) feels probable; both sides may settle for a point if news from Mansfield’s game filters through.
3. Mansfield Town vs. MK Dons
Mansfield’s high press has generated the most high-turnover goals in the league. MK Dons want the ball, averaging 62 % possession on the road. Something has to give. The model says 55 % chance of a Mansfield win, but set-piece vulnerability makes 2-2 a live outsider at 12/1.
4. Crewe vs. Crawley – the play-off eliminator
Seventh hosts eighth; Crewe’s six-match winning streak is built on late goals (eight after 75’). Crawley’s front three have combined for 21 away goals. Whoever scores first wins 78 % of the time in this fixture historically. Crewe to edge it 3-2 in a thriller.
5. Bradford Park Avenue… sorry, Bradford City at Barrow
Bradford’s away form is wretched: one win in 11. Barrow need a point to be mathematically safe. The weather forecast calls for 40 mph gusts off the Irish Sea—perfect for Barrow’s direct style. A scrappy 1-0 home win keeps the Cumbrians up and leaves Bradford relying on other results to sneak into seventh.
6. The relegation six-pointer: Forest Green vs. Tranmere
Rovers have won once since January; Tranmere have taken seven points from nine. Yet Tranmere’s xGA on the road is the third-worst. A single mistake could decide it. Simulation run 10,000 times: 38 % win Tranmere, 35 % win FGR, 27 % draw. Take the draw (1-1) and condemn both to sweat on Sunday evening.
7. Gillingham at Newport – the dead rubber that isn’t
Gillingham are safe but have conceded in eight straight. Newport’s new 3-5-2 has yielded 2.1 xG per game. A sneaky 3-1 away win could lift Gills to 12th, triggering a £150 k merit bonus—enough to fund a summer striker. Expect open, end-to-end football.
8. Swindon vs. already-relegated Hartlepool
Swindon need a three-goal swing to overtake Bradford on goal difference. Hartlepool’s kids have nothing to lose. The first 20 minutes will be a track meet; if Swindon score twice early, lay the boots for a 5-0 romp that briefly flirts with the impossible.
9. Harrogate vs. Salford – the vanity project clash
Salford’s owners expect a top-half finish; ninth is the floor. Harrogate’s artificial pitch negates Salford’s press. Look for a late, late winner from a set piece: 2-1 Harrogate, denting the Ammies’ pride and betting market.
Bottom-line projections
– Champions: Stockport (92 pts)
– Automatic: Wrexham (88), Mansfield (87)
– Play-offs: MK Dons, Crewe, Bradford, Barrow (on goals scored tie-break)
– Relegated: Sutton, FGR, Hartlepool (already down)
Remember, League Two laughs at spreadsheets. Keep the remote handy; the last 15 minutes could flip every prediction on its head.
