Belgrade braces for a pivotal UEFA qualifier on Friday night as Serbia welcomes Austria to the Rajko Mitić Stadium. Both sides trail group leaders in the table, making this meeting a six-pointer that could shape the road to Germany 2024. Here is a data-driven preview, predicted XIs, and a final scoreline projection.
Current Form
Serbia enters the match unbeaten in six competitive fixtures (W4 D2) and has scored in 14 consecutive home games. Austria, meanwhile, has won only two of its last six (D2 L2) and was held scoreless in back-to-back friendlies against Slovenia and Slovakia last month. Austria’s away record is particularly shaky—three defeats in their last five road trips, shipping at least two goals in each loss.
Team News & Expected Line-ups
Serbia welcomes back Juventus striker Dušan Vlahović after a minor thigh strain. Captain Dušan Tadić will operate off the left, while Sergej Milinković-Savić provides late-box runs from midfield. Austria’s David Alaba remains a doubt with a knee issue; if he misses out, Borussia Dortmund’s Philipp Lienhart slots in centrally. Marcel Sabitzer is suspended after last month’s red against Sweden.
Serbia (3-4-2-1): V. Milinković-Savić – Veljković, Milenković, Pavlović – Živković, Lukic, Sergej Milinković-Savić, Mladenović – Tadić, Kostić – Vlahović.
Austria (4-2-3-1): Lindner – Lainer, Lienhart, Wöber, Friedl – Seiwald, Laimer – Baumgartner, Grbić, Arnautović – Gregoritsch.
Tactical Match-up
Expect Serbia to press in a 3-4-2-1 shape, using Kostić-Tadić double overloads to pin Austria’s right-back Lainer. Austria will look to transition quickly through Baumgartner between the lines and feed target man Gregoritsch early for knock-downs. The midfield battle—Sergej Milinković-Savić versus Laimer—will dictate tempo; whoever wins second balls can spring counters into acres of space behind the wing-backs.
Key Stats
– Serbia averages 2.1 xGF per home qualifier since 2021.
– Austria concedes 1.7 xGA per away match in the same span.
– Vlahović has six goals in his last nine national-team starts.
– Arnautović leads Austria with 34 goals but has managed just one in his last 10 appearances.
Prediction
Serbia’s superior firepower and home advantage outweighing Austria’s transitional threat. Austria will strike on the break through Baumgartner, yet Serbia’s pressing structure should force enough turnovers to create clear chances. Look for a late winner after a tight first 70 minutes.
Projected Score: Serbia 2 – 1 Austria
