Matchday 27 offered few surprises at the top of the table, and the final nine rounds promise an unforgiving sprint to the championship playoffs. With the top six spots consolidated by a four-point swing between second and sixth, Belgium Pro League predictions now revolve around four key storylines.
1. Union SG remain slight title favorites
Despite a 1-1 draw at Genk, Felice Mazzù’s squad enjoys the deepest bench and joint-best expected-goals balance in the league (48.2 xG scored, 24.7 xG conceded). Models built on Elo and xPTS give Union a 42 % probability of finishing first, just ahead of Anderlecht at 38 %. Bruno Verdonck’s set-piece efficiency (16 goals from dead-ball situations) is a repeatable edge that compensates for a relatively slow tempo in open play.
2. Anderlecht’s youth revolution could peak in May
The 3-0 win over Cercle Brugge showcased the combined influence of 19-year-old goalscorer Luis Vázquez and 22-year-old creator Kasper Dolberg (three assists in four games). Anderlecht’s fixture list is the softest among the top four: five of nine games come against teams ranked 11-16. Their expected goals chain suggests 27-30 points from the run-in, enough to push Union to the final weekend.
3. The fourth Champions League ticket is a three-way dice roll
Club Brugge, Gent and Genk sit within two points of each other. A cluster analysis of ball-progression numbers ranks Genk first for passes into the final third, yet they are converting only 9.4 % of shots—third-worst. If Débuffet finds a finisher (Omar Colley’s box crashes are worth 0.14 xG per 90), Genk could leapfrog Club Brugge, who are still adapting to Nicky Hayen’s high press.
4. Relegation scrap: Eupen vs the field
Seraing’s six-point deduction for licensing irregularities has given Eupen lifelines in 14th place, but the Pandas have the league’s worst post-restart schedule (xPTS 6.4). Standard Liège’s derby win in Week 26 lifted them to 11th, effectively ending their sweat. Predictive Monte Carlo runs give Eupen a 68 % chance of automatic relegation, with RWD Molenbeek 46 % likely to join them in the playoff pool.
Golden Boot forecast
No one is catching Kévin Denkey (OH Leuven), whose 25 non-penalty goals sit 10 above the field. Even a minor muscular setback would still leave the Togolese striker two clear; the model projects 32-33 goals, the highest Pro League total since 2003.
Championship play-off simulation (10 000 runs)
Union 42 %, Anderlecht 38 %, Club Brugge 13 %, Gent 6 %, Genk 1 %. The remaining 17 fixtures, all analyzed through player-level SPI ratings, will be streamed live on ESPN+ and DAZN Benelux beginning 30 March.
