Belgium’s top flight kicks off on 26 July with a reshuffled deck: Union SG are the reigning regular-season kings, but after a play-off collapse to Royal Antwerp, every contender smells vulnerability. Here’s how the 2024-25 Jupiler Pro League is likely to unfold.
TITLE RACE (TOP-6 PLAY-OFF PREDICTION)
1. Union Saint-Gilloise – Still the deepest squad and the smartest recruitment department outside the Big Five. Coach Alexander Blessin added Denmark U-21 striker Mads Frøkjær-Jensen and Ajax loanee Kian Fitz-Jim, giving them high-tempo creators for the 4-3-3 that bulldozed the table last year. Expect 1.9 xG differential per game again.
2. Royal Antwerp – Mark van Bommel has kept key veterans Toby Alderweireld and Vincent Janssen, while integrating 19-year-old midfield prodigy Jurgen Ekkelenkamp. Champions’ bonus cash was reinvested in an analytics-led five-man defense, turning the Bosuilstadion into Belgium’s stingiest ground (0.9 GA/game projection).
3. Club Brugge – With Ferran Jutglà finally fit and new coach Nicky Hayen shifting to a 3-4-2-1 heavy on inverted wing-backs, the blue-blacks will push past 70 goals. Question marks at goalkeeper could leave them three points short of the top two.
4. Anderlecht – The youth academy graduates are a year older; Mats Rits and Yarne Laureyssen form a metronomic double pivot. A late-window centre-back signing will decide whether they turn a surplus of draws into wins.
5. Genk – A full rebuild in midfield after the departures of Hrosovsky and Heynen means early-season inconsistency, but Tolu Arokodare might win the Golden Boot with 22+ goals.
6. Gent – Gifted attackers Hugo Cuypers and Andrew Hjulsager left, exposing thin depth; play-offs feel like the ceiling rather than a springboard.
DARK HORSES & EUROPEAN HOPEFULS
Cercle Brugge’s data-driven model captured 19-year-old Norwegian winger Sondre Auklend; if he adapts quickly, they can break into the top six. Mechelen’s 4-2-2-2 press suffocated bigger teams in pre-season, and KV Mechelen could steal the last Conference League ticket via the “Europe” play-off group.
RELEGATION WATCH
The new format forces teams 12-16 into a survival group with the top two from the Challenger Pro League. Eupen’s fire-sale of starters looks disastrous, while Sint-Truiden’s attacking output collapsed after the sale of Brazilian striker Facundo Colidio. RWD Molenbeek finished rock-bottom last spring and start 2024-25 with minus-three points due to licensing breaches; they are the early favorites to drop straight back to Division 1B.
GOLDEN BOOT
Expect a two-horse race: Union’s Frøkjær-Jensen and Antwerp’s Janssen, both projected at 23–25 goals. The model also tilts to Arokodare if Genk secure enough service for the 1.93-m target man.
YOUNG PLAYER TO WAWTCH
18-year-old winger Romeo Vermant (Club Brugge) averaged 0.55 non-pen xG+xA per 90 in the reserves; first-team minutes should translate to 10+ goal contributions.
MANAGER OF THE YEAR CONTENDER
Union’s Blessin is the analytics community’s darling, but keep an eye on Cercle’s Miron Muslic, who guided a €7m wage bill to within nine points of Champions League football last year.
KEY FIXTURES
– Matchday 5: Union vs. Antwerp – early six-pointer that could set psychological tone.
– Matchday 12: Brugge derby – Club Brugge need momentum; Cercle sense blood.
– Play-off opener: Anderlecht vs. Union – tactical chess match that usually defines the narrative ahead of the split.
EXPECTED FINAL STANDINGS (REGULAR SEASON)
1. Union SG – 77 pts
2. Antwerp – 74 pts
3. Club Brugge – 70 pts
4. Anderlecht – 68 pts
5. Genk – 62 pts
6. Gent – 58 pts
…
16. RWD Molenbeek – 18 pts (relegated)
Bottom line: despite Antwerp’s trophy-lifting experience and Brugge’s star power, Union’s statistical edge, squad age curve, and tactical coherence make them favorites to reclaim the league when the play-off dust settles next May.
