Buenos Aires wakes up to another fevered weekend of Primera action, and the numbers say Matchday 8 will tilt the title race before the spring leaves even bloom. Here are the sharpest calls, built from expected-goals models, injury wires and the one metric coaches never print: travel fatigue.
1. River Plate – Defensa y Justicia
Prediction: River 2-0
Marcelo Gallardo’s side has kept a clean sheet in five straight at the Monumental. Defensa arrive without top-scorer Taborda (suspended) and have never scored on River in Núñez across four visits. A fast press inside the first 20 minutes exposes the Halcón high line; the xG gap is 1.8-0.6.
2. Boca Juniors – Banfield
Prediction: 1-1
Boca’s new five-man back line looked stodgy against Estudiantes, and Banfield’s counter wingers will repeat the dose on a dry pitch. Expect a scrappy tangle decided by a late VAR review.
3. Racing Club – Instituto
Prediction: Racing 3-1
The Academy average 2.4 goals at home since Coppa took over; Instituto’s left-side channel ships 60 % of their conceded chances. López and Copetti both to score at 4.1 with most books.
4. Rosario Central – Tigre
Prediction: 1-2
Central’s mid-table safety net makes them tactically loose; Tigre need points to escape the red zone. Montoya’s late runs from deep, plus Central’s absence of a natural six, sets up another away surprise.
5. Independiente – San Lorenzo
Prediction: 0-0
A derby dripping more nerves than narrative: 0.7 xG combined in the last H2H. Both coaches would take a point; the draw pays 2.9.
6. Huracán – Godoy Cruz
Prediction: Huracán 1-0
The Tomba’s xG away (0.9) is the division’s worst; Huracán’s last-gasp set-piece mastery gives them a 75 % chance of scoring from a dead ball.
Dark-Horse Special: Gimnasia to win at Barracas Central (3.4). The Wolf have lost once on Monday nights since 2019, and Barracas concede a league-high 15 % of goals in the final ten minutes. One late free kick could gift the upset.
Banker Acca: River & Racing to win, Independiente-San Lorenzo under 2.5 goals returns 2.98. Stake smart, enjoy the chaos.
