The expanded 48-team 2026 World Cup gives Europe a record 16 direct berths plus a potential playoff reprieve, turning every UEFA group into a chessboard where one slip could still be survivable. Below are data-driven predictions, group-by-group storylines and the outsiders most likely to crash the continent’s aristocracy.
Group A: Zlatan-less Sweden rebound behind Dejan Kulusevski’s breakout qualifying campaign; Austria’s Marcel Sabitzer-Tobias Grillitsch axis edges them on goal difference, while Aleksandar Mitrović’s Serbia settle for playoffs after two costly draws in Vienna and Solna.
Group B: Reigning champions Italy avoid a third straight qualifying trauma; Luciano Spalletti’s 3-4-2-1 reboot yields seven clean sheets and a ticket to the U.S. Israel’s dynamic counter under new coach Ran Ben Shimon snatches second, sending England—haunted by a 1-0 November loss in Naples—to another playoff minefield.
Group C: Erling Haaland scores 11 in eight matches, but it is Martin Ødegaard’s tempo dictation that propels Norway top. Spain finish second, relieved by a last-gasp Robin Le Normand header in Glasgow that simultaneously eliminates Steve Clarke’s Scotland.
Group D: Croatia’s veteran spine (Modrić–Brozović–Perišić) enjoys a gentle schedule and tops the section. Wales’ youthful pivot of Jordan James and Harry Wilson secures second; Turkey implode after Arda Güler’s mid-October thigh strain.
Group E: Belgium’s “2.0 generation” of Jeremy Doku and Romeo Lavia storms through unbeaten. Czechia’s Adam Hložek finishes Golden Boot runner-up, but a solitary defeat in Brussels forces them into the playoffs. Albania grab historic third place, frustrating Moldova and the Faroes with a five-man back line.
Group F: Out of Germany’s shadow, Julian Nagelsmann allows Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala free roles; Die Mannschaft score 28 goals. Ukraine, galvanized by the return of league-based home fixtures in Dortmund and Gelsenkirchen, take second. Iceland fade after a September red card for Orri Óskarsson in Yerevan.
Group G: Hungary’s Marco Rossi continues EFL overlap trends, while Serbia’s post-Mitrović transition struggles. Montenegro’s Stevan Jovetić farewell tour falls one win short, granting Slovenia a playoff lifeline via Benjamin Šeško’s stoppage-time hat-trick in Podgorica.
Group H: Kylian Mbappé finishes with 9 goals and 6 assists, yet France still drop points in a snowy Reykjavik. The Netherlands overhaul them on direct-head-to-head thanks to a Cody Gakpo double in Paris. Greece edge Republic of Ireland on goal difference for playoff relevance.
Group I: Switzerland’s Breel Embolo returns from ACL purgatory to fire the Rossocrociati to an undefeated record. Final-table goal difference ejects Israel, whose earlier Group B heroics can’t be replicated. Romania pip Kosovo for third.
Group J: Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo becomes the first player to appear in six World Cup qualifying cycles, netting six penalties as Roberto Martínez tinkers with a 4-3-3 false-nine variant. Bosnia ride Edin Džeko’s last dance to second; Luxembourg’s post-managerial-transition blues land them mid-table respectability.
Playoff Forecast: The Nations League ladder seeds Italy, England, Poland and Ukraine into Path A. A Wembley semi-final shoot-out sees England oust Poland, then fall to an Italy squad rejuvenated by 18-year-old Francesco Camarda’s extra-time winner. Europe’s 17th representative in 2026? The Azzurri, again.
Dark-Horse Bet: Norway’s age curve (average 24.3 years) and vertical style could take them beyond the group stage in North America, replicating Croatia’s 1998 surprise.
Key Advanced Metrics: Expected Goals differential (xGD) over the last 12 months favors France (+2.14 per match) and Germany (+2.07) despite recent hiccups. Don’t read too much into single-leg upsets—since 2016, 82 % of teams posting >1.9 xGD eventually qualify automatically.
Calendar Circle: Matchday 9 (November 16, 2025) doubles as “Elimination Sunday,” with six second-place ties likely to be decided by goals scored in the 85th-plus minute.
The road to 2026 is longer, deeper and more unpredictable than ever. Bring the calculators, the heart medication, and the flags—UEFA qualifying is about to write another chaotic masterpiece.
