Round 28 of the Belgium Jupiler League arrives with the championship pendulum still swinging and the relegation trapdoor yawning wider than ever. Below are data-driven predictions for the weekend’s headline fixtures, together with longer-term projections for the title, European places, and the survival scrap.
1. Union SG vs Genk – Friday 20:30 CET
Expected Goals model (xG) gives Union SG 1.87, Genk 1.42. Union’s home record (9-3-1) and Genk’s injury list—central midfielder Heynen and left-back Muñoz remain doubtful—tilt the forecast.
Prediction: Union SG 2-1 Genk (57 % win probability).
2. Anderlecht vs Club Brugge – Sunday 18:30 CET
The Big Two meet with only goal difference separating them. Anderlecht’s press-intensity under Besnik Hasi has risen 8 % since February, but Brugge’s Skov Olsen–Vanaken axis has created more big chances (43) than any other duo.
Prediction: Score draw 2-2 (41 %), both teams scoring > 70 % likelihood.
3. Antwerp vs Cercle Brugge – Saturday 20:45 CET
Defending champions Antwerp (-4 goals vs xGA) have regressed, yet Cercle’s away xG differential (-0.38 per 90) is joint-worst. Janssen and Alderweireld set-piece threat tips the scales.
Prediction: Antwerp 3-1 Cercle Brugge.
4. Relegation six-pointer: Eupen vs RWD Molenbeek – Saturday 18:15 CET
Eupen’s 0.85 points per game under caretaker Van Eenoo edges RWD’s 0.77. Model flags < 2.2 total goals; draw suits neither but feels inevitable.
Prediction: 1-1 (39 %).
Seasonal Forecasts (Monte-Carlo, 10 000 runs)
Title: Union SG 44 %, Anderlecht 26 %, Club Brugge 22 %, Genk 8 %.
Fourth Place (last Champions PO spot): Brugge 41 %, Genk 33 %, Antwerp 19 %.
Relegation: Eupen 61 %, RWD 54 %, Kortrijk 35 %, OH Leuven 28 %.
Golden Boot (current + projected):
Teddy Teuma (Union) 18 + 6 = 24.
Anders Dreyer (Anderlecht) 17 + 6 = 23.
Majeed Ashimeru (Anderlecht top assists) 11 + 5 = 16.
Value Bets (avg odds vs model prob.)
Over 2.5 goals in Antwerp-Cercle: bookies 1.75, model 1.60.
Both Teams to Score in Union-Genk: 1.68 offered vs 1.58 “fair”.
Long-shot: Kortrijk double-chance at Sint-Truiden pays 2.40; model price 2.05.
Bottom Line
Union SG’s deep squad and Champions League experience make them marginal title favorites, yet Anderlecht’s youth surge and Club Brugge’s pedigree guarantee a three-horse sprint. At the foot, goal difference could separate Eupen and RWD on the final day—expect fireworks from March onward.
