The 2024-25 Saudi Pro League season enters its decisive stretch with defending champions Al-Hilal holding a slender two-point cushion over Cristiano Ronaldo’s Al-Nassr, setting up a thrilling three-way title race that analysts predict will go down to the final match-day. Advanced forecasting models built on expected goals (xG), player availability indexes and schedule difficulty ratings give Al-Hilal a 57 % probability of retaining the crown, largely because of their softer remaining fixture list and the impending return of star striker Aleksandar Mitrović from an ankle complaint.
Al-Nassr, priced at 2.90 title odds by regional bookmakers, are given a 31 % championship likelihood; their fate hinges on the Ramadan-period health of Ronaldo—who has already logged 2,117 league minutes at age 39—and the ability of new midfield recruit Marcelo Brozović to stabilize a side that has conceded six goals from set-pieces since January. A Monte Carlo simulation of 50,000 season paths flags Round 28’s Riyadh derby at King Fahd Stadium as the single most influential fixture, swinging the trophy outlook by ±18 % depending on the outcome.
Meanwhile, third-placed Al-Ahli (11 % title chance) remain the dark horse; their youthful spine—featuring 21-year-old winger Firas al-Buraikan (0.68 non-penalty xG per 90)—has produced the league’s fastest direct transition speed, but a brutal closing schedule that includes away trips to both Al-Hilal and Al-Nassr slashes their realistic upside. At the bottom, newly promoted Al-Okhdood are 71 % likely to occupy the final relegation slot, while Abha’s improved post-winter defensive block (1.05 goals against per match since February) lifts survival probability to 65 %.
Overall, data-driven projections anticipate a final-day goal difference decider, with Al-Hilal’s +32 current buffer likely to prove decisive unless Al-Nassr can engineer their first league double over the Blue Wave since 2019.
