With one game left in the 2023-24 Ligue 2 season, the promotion picture is razor-thin. Leaders Le Havre have already sealed the automatic ticket, but the play-off berth is still up for grabs. Here are the data-driven projections for every contender heading into the ultimate 90 minutes.
1. Current state of play
– 2nd (direct promotion): Le Havre – 69 pts | +23 GD (secure)
– 3rd (play-off spot): Metz – 64 pts | +18 GD
– 4th: Bordeaux – 63 pts | +20 GD
– 5th: Sochaux – 62 pts | +17 GD
– 6th: Paris FC – 61 pts | +14 GD
2. Fixture difficulty index
We weighed each opponent’s home/away form, goals conceded and “pressure” metrics (points won vs. top-half teams since March). Metz travel to mid-table Amiens (difficulty 4.2/10), Bordeaux host already-safe Caen (3.8/10), Sochaux visit relegated Dijon (2.9/10), while Paris FC face promotion-chasing Le Havre (7.6/10).
3. Expected Goals (xG) model
Using 14-week rolling xG/xGA, the projected scores are:
– Amiens 0.9 – 1.7 Metz → 65 % win chance → 2.1 expected points
– Bordeaux 2.0 – 1.1 Caen → 68 % win → 2.2 expected points
– Dijon 0.7 – 1.6 Sochaux → 63 % win → 2.0 expected points
– Paris FC 1.2 – 1.4 Le Havre → 32 % win → 1.1 expected points
4. Monte-Carlo simulation (50 000 runs)
Probability of finishing 3rd (play-off):
– Metz: 73 %
– Bordeaux: 25 %
– Sochaux: 2 %
– Paris FC: <0.1 %
5. Injury & rotation watch
Metz will have their top scorer Mikautadze back after suspension. Bordeaux’s Elis is 90 % fit, while Sochaux’s captain Weissbeck is battling a knock. Paris FC have a clean bill of health but must attack a Le Havre side that prides itself on defensive shape.
6. Verdict
The numbers say Metz are three-to-one favorites to cling to the play-off slot, yet Bordeaux’s superior goal difference means a Metz slip combined with a Bordeaux win flips the script. Expect a tense afternoon of scoreboard watching in both Nord and Gironde.
Betting angle: Metz to win & both teams to score (2.75) offers value if you trust their attack; braver punters can pair Bordeaux -1 Asian handicap (3.40) with a Metz draw-no-bet insurance parlay. Whatever you choose, strap in—Ligue 2’s final day seldom follows the script.
