Even in a league where green-and-white ribbons have become almost part of the furniture, the 2024-25 Scottish Premiership is shaping up as the most open title race since Rodgers’ first tenure. Data from Opta’s rolling 12-month expected goals (xG) model shows the gap between Celtic and Rangers has narrowed to just 0.11 points per game, the slimmest margin in six seasons. Hearts, buoyed by a loan army of EPL youngsters, sit a credible third with an xPoints tally that would have earned third by nine points last year. Below them, Aberdeen’s high press under Jimmy Thelin is generating the league’s highest possession-winning actions in the final third, but a league-worst 7.2 % conversion rate keeps them fourth in the table and fifth in the model.
The forecast
Run 10 000 season simulations through Twenty3’s AI engine—each weighted for xG, injuries, Europa League travel days and even Dundee’s new synthetic surface—and Celtic still lift the trophy 52 % of the time, down from 73 % last August. Rangers’ probability has doubled to 38 %, helped by a favourable split-fixture list that sends them to Ibrox for three of the last five matches. Hearts snag the remaining 10 %, almost entirely on the back of zero continental travel and a cushy run that pits them against the bottom six in seven of the last nine gameweeks.
Relegation & top-six cutoff
At the bottom, Livingston’s sell-off of their 2022-23 spine leaves the model forecasting a 64 % drop to the Championship. Ross County’s inability to evolve beyond direct football under an ageing squad gives them a 49 % relegation threat, while St Johnstone’s 17-year-old academy striker is predicted to provide just enough spark to edge the playoff spot. The top-six line falls exactly on 41 points—Aberdeen’s Monte-Carlo median—meaning late-season meetings between the Dons, Hibs and Dundee United could resemble knockout ties.
Player-level nuggets
• Rangers’ new Iranian winger tops the player-specific xG+xA per 90 (0.83) despite only 487 league minutes, a sample the model now trusts because his underlying radar is a 92 % match to Arne Engels’ 2022-23 Belgian Pro League profile.
• Celtic’s £3 million South-Korean full-back is forecast for 9.4 progressive passes per 90, the highest by a defender since Tierney’s 2018-19 season.
• Hearts’ 19-year-old Chelsea loanee centre-back registers 76 % aerial duel success, a figure that flips the standard age-curve and adds 0.18 goals per match in set-piece value.
European ripple effect
Because both Old-Firm clubs now enter the Europa League group phase, rotation will bite. The model docks each Glasgow side 0.25 points per matchday that follows a Thursday-night flight of more than 2 000 km. That scheduling quirk alone swings two title points over 38 games—enough, in 11 % of simulations, to tilt the balance from Celtic to Rangers on the final day.
Bottom line
Betting markets still price Celtic at 1.60, implying 63 % title certainty, but the algorithm says those odds are shy by almost a full tenth. For punters and purists alike, the smart play is a plus-odds wager on the title being decided on goal difference or even a 90-minute playoff at Hampden. After nine years of one-horse parades, the numbers insist Scotland’s flag might just be borrowed next May.
