The 2024 Argentina Liga Profesional is entering its decisive stretch, and the race for the championship is tighter than ever. After 18 rounds, defending champions River Plate sit just two points behind surprise leaders Talleres de Córdoba, while Boca Juniors—still adjusting to Diego Martínez’s high-press system—hover in fifth, four points off the top. Here are data-driven predictions for the final ten matchdays, based on expected goals (xG) trends, injury reports, and historical performance in clásicos.
1. Title Forecast
Our Elo-based simulation, updated after Round 18, gives Talleres a 34 % chance of lifting their first ever top-flight trophy, largely because their remaining schedule is the softest among the top six (average opponent xG differential –0.31). River Plate are close behind at 31 %, buoyed by the league’s best away record (2.1 points per game) and the return of striker Miguel Borja from a Grade-1 hamstring strain. Boca Juniors, despite the glamour, are projected at only 12 %; their attacking output has dropped 0.28 xG per match since February, and they still must travel to both Racing Club and Newell’s.
2. Relegation Battle
The average of the past three seasons’ points totals leaves Arsenal de Sarandí, Colón and Central Córdoba inside the drop zone. Yet the model flags Platense as the most likely to plunge; their upcoming run includes five of the top seven sides, and goalkeeper Ramiro Macagno’s post-shot xG saved has regressed by 11 % since early April. Expect Colón to climb out thanks to a favourable double-header against already-safe mid-table teams.
3. Top-Scorer Race
With 13 goals, Racing’s Adrián Martínez leads the chart, but injury-time metrics suggest he is over-performing his xG by 3.4. River’s Borja and Lanús’ Lautaro Acosta are both on 11 goals and have underlying numbers that hint at sustainability. Projection: Borja edges it with 22 by season’s end, aided by four home fixtures in the last six rounds.
4. Key Matchday to Watch
Round 23 (Oct 27) could decide everything: River Plate host Talleres at the Mâs Monumental. A River win flips the title odds to roughly 55 % for Los Millonarios, whereas a Talleres draw keeps the race wide open. Expect a tight affair—River’s pressing intensity drops 7 % in noon kick-offs, and Talleres’ five-man back line has conceded only four second-half goals all year.
5. Dark-Horse Bet
Defensa y Justicia, currently ninth, have an 8 % implied probability of sneaking into the 2025 Copa Libertadores group stage. Their secret weapon is 19-year-old playmaker Tomás Avilés, whose progressive passes per 90 (11.2) rank second in the league. If coach Sebastián Beccacece rotates smartly during the midweek Copa Argentina ties, Defensa could finish as high as fifth.
Bottom line: bank on Talleres or River for the title, back Borja for the Golden Boot, and keep an eye on Platense’s nervy final fixtures if you’re searching for relegation value. The superclásico may steal headlines, but the numbers say the championship will be settled in Córdoba on the last weekend of November.
