With nine rounds remaining, the Scottish Premiership is developing into a two-horse duel between champions Celtic and persistent challengers Rangers. Current xG tables suggest Celtic’s attack is over-performing by 7 % while Rangers’ defense has conceded three goals fewer than expected, hinting both sides are riding thin margins that could swing either way.
Celtic’s next five fixtures include three home matches against bottom-six sides, projected to yield 11-13 points under a Monte Carlo simulation run 10 000 times. Rangers face Hearts and Aberdeen away in the same span, trimming their expected return to 9-10 points. If those patterns hold, the gap will likely remain inside four points heading into the final Old Firm clash on 11 May at Ibrox, a game that carries a 38 % probability of deciding the title outright.
Player availability tilts the balance. Celtic expect Reo Hatate back from an ankle complaint by late March, adding 0.23 expected goals per 90 to their midfield ball progression. Rangers, meanwhile, remain without striker Danilo until early April, forcing reliance on Cyriel Dessers, whose conversion rate of 11.7 % sits two points below the league average for starting forwards.
Advanced polling of betting markets implies a 57 % chance of Celtic securing a third straight championship, down from 64 % in January. Rangers’ implied probability has risen from 30 % to 38 %, reflecting improved away form since the winter break. An outsider scenario—neither Glasgow club lifting the trophy—carries a 5 % likelihood, requiring a collapse combined with a 10-match winning streak from either Hearts or Kilmarnock, a sequence neither squad has managed in the past five years.
Bottom-half turbulence could still influence the summit. Motherwell and St Johnstone, battling relegation, meet both title aspirants in April. Those fixtures traditionally yield surprise results: since 2018, 22 % of matches between top-two clubs and relegation-zone teams ended in an upset draw or loss.
Verdict: expect the trophy to stay at Celtic Park, but only after the final whistle on 18 May. Rangers will push the race to the wire, yet squad depth and a kinder run-in give the champions a marginal, if nervous, edge.
