The 2024-25 2. Bundesliga season kicks off with more plot-lines than a Berlin noir novel. Automatic promotion, relegation six-pointers, and the ever-dramatic play-off berth will be decided across 34 high-stress matchdays. Here is a data-driven look at how the table is most likely to shake out.
PROMOTION FRONT-RUNNERS
1. Hamburger SV – Despite the “eternal bridesmaid” tag, HSV’s expected-goes tally under coach Steffen Baumgart was already top-two quality last year. Add striker Davie Selke on a permanent deal and left-back Miro Muheim after a successful loan, and the Rothosen finally have the squad depth to finish the job.
2. 1. FC Köln – The Billy Goats’ parachute payment plus the retention of Florian Kainz and Ellyes Skhiri gives them a Bundesliga-level spine. Only a slow dressing-room reset after last year’s chaos keeps them from runaway favorites.
3. Hertha BSC – New investor cash stabilized the wage bill, while striker Fabian Schubert’s 18-goal奥地利 season arrives in the capital. If the back four can trim a league-worst 68 goals conceded, the Olympiastadion could host top-flight football again.
PLAY-OFF CONTENDERS
4. SC Paderborn – The league’s youngest coach, Lukas Kwasniok, presses like a caffeinated student, and with Robert Leipertz re-signed, Paderborn’s goal difference should hover just shy of elite.
5. Fortuna Düsseldorf – Without talisman Rouwen Hennings (retired), Daniel Thioune will lean on 19-year-old prodigy Emmanuel Iyoha. Regression is likely, but Fortuna’s academy pipeline keeps them in the conversation.
6. Holstein Kiel – The Storks finally sold midfield metronome Lewis Holtby to MLS, yet replacement Finn Porath is more vertical, suiting a league where transition kills. Depth on the flanks is the only question.
DARK HORSE
7. Greuther Fürth – After selling Branimir Hrgota to the Middle East, Fürth引进速翼Giovanni Haag from Basel. If new coach Alexander Zorniger’s Red-Bull-style press takes, Fürth could leap into the top six by Matchday 20.
RELEGATION SCRAP
15. SV Elversberg – The smallest budget in the division (€12 m) means miracles are required to repeat last year’s escape.
16. Jahn Regensburg – Dependent on 34-year-old striker Andreas Albers for goals; one injury and the trapdoor creaks open.
17. SV Wehen Wiesbaden – A neutral expected-goes difference of –21 was masked by lucky one-goal wins last season; regression beckons.
18. VfL Osnabrück – Lost both starting centre-backs and failed to replace them with second-tier experience.
KEY TRENDS TO WATCH
• Data says 42 points is the new magic number for safety, down from 45 two years ago.
• Teams that press above 155 PPDA (passes per defensive action) have finished top-half in nine of the last ten seasons—watch Paderborn and Köln.
• Relegated clubs average a 0.38 goals-per-game drop when their top scorer is sold before October—Hertha must keep Schubert happy.
BOLD CALL
Hamburg finally breaks the curse, Köln join them automatically, and Fortuna edges Schalke in a play-off for the ages. Whatever happens, expect 34 rounds of chaos, 90th-minute heartache, and the sweetest promotion party in German football come May.
