Back-to-back champions Farul Constanța kept their core over the summer, added two proven foreign wingers on free transfers, and hired a data-driven assistant coach who crunches pressing metrics after every match. That quartet of smart, low-cost moves makes them the early Romania Liga 1 prediction favorite at 37 % title odds, according to a weighted Elo model that factors in squad value, cumulative minutes lost to injury, and managerial experience in the championship round.
FC FCSB remain the strongest disruptor.Flush with Europa League money, the Bucharest giants signed a 19-goal striker from Brazil’s Série B and finally found a ball-winning midfielder to replace the departed Octavian Popescu. Simulations run 5 000 times still see them finish within three points of Farul, with a 31 % probability of lifting the trophy in May 2025.
The dark horse is Universitatea Craiova. Their new 3-4-3 system created the second-most “big chances” in pre-season friendlies, and 21-year-old winger Ștefan Baiaram is poised for a breakout year. If they solve an unsettled goalkeeper situation before match-day 6, Craiova’s title odds jump from 12 % to 18 %, enough to force a genuine three-horse race.
At the bottom, newly promoted Unirea Slobozia and Politehnica Iași lack depth and are tipped for the relegation play-out, while Dinamo’s financial strife could drag them into the same battle unless a takeover closes by October.
Bottom line: Farul’s continuity, tactical edge and superior expected-goals balance still tip the scales, but an FCSB spending spree or a Craiova youth surge could flip the Romania Liga 1 prediction script before the winter break.
