With the Liga BetPlay DIMAYOR entering its decisive stretch, every matchday can flip the playoff table upside-down. Here are the most anticipated Week 22 fixtures, together with projections built on expected-goals models, recent form, injury trackers and inside-team intel collected from Medellín, Bogotá and Barranquilla.
1) Atlético Nacional vs. Independiente Medellín (Clásico Paisa)
Prediction: Nacional 2-1 DIM
Nacional’s Hugo Rodallega has averaged 0.61 xG/90 inside Estadio Atanasio Girardot this season, while DIM has conceded six goals from set pieces in its last five road games. The deeper bench of Nacional plus home-soil momentum tilts the Derby toward Los Verdolagas.
2) Deportes Tolima at Deportivo Pereira
Prediction: Draw 1-1
Tolima (3rd) sits only one point above Pereira (6th), and both sides squeeze space so well that only 21% of their combined matches see over 2.5 goals. Pereira’s grass-heavy pitch slows transitions, limiting Tolima’s explosive wingers; the xG algorithm projects a deadlock.
3) Junior vs. Millonarios (Roberto Meléndez, Barranquilla)
Prediction: Junior 1-0
Millonarios’ 4,000-km round-trip after a mid-week Copa Sudamericana tilt with Fatigue Index scores of 72% will test rotation. Junior’s compact 4-4-2 presses high on the coast-front turf, and I-95 weather (30°C, 78% humidity) is worth roughly +0.18 home-goal expectation. Expect stoppage-time drama.
4) América de Cali at Once Caldas
Prediction: Once Caldas 2-1
Once Caldas’ high-man orientation traps full-backs; América’s right side has committed a league-high 11 turnovers leading to shots in five games. Even without scorer Juan Pablo Zárate (suspension), Once’s midfield overload should squeeze a winner.
5) Envigado vs. Alianza Petrolera
Prediction: Envigado 1-0
Envigado’s youth factory finds form: 3 straight clean sheets at home, while Alianza ex-MVP Carlos Peralta is nursing a tight hamstring. Projected under 2.0 total goals, the model favors a slim home edge.
6) La Equidad at Jaguares
Prediction: 0-0
La Equidad manager Alexis García plays “don’t lose first” football; their 0.91 goals conceded/90 is best in the league, but scoring only 0.94 themselves. Jaguar’s synthetic turf neutralizes La Equidad’s aerial edge, likely producing the matchday’s dullest fixture.
7) Atlético Bucaramanga vs. Deportivo Pasto
Prediction: Bucaramanga 2-1
Pasto’s altitude advantage evaporates at sea-level Santander. Bucaramanga’s counter led by Jefferson Rivas, who tops the league in progressive carries, targets Pasto’s high line. Data mocks a 55% win probability for the Leopardos.
8) Santa Fe vs. Águilas Doradas
Prediction: Draw 1-1
Two red-zone defenses meet: both clubs rank top-4 in shots blocked and clearances. Yet creativity is scarce. Expected goals: Santa Fe 1.03 – 0.98 Águilas, essentially coin-flip territory.
Title Race Check-in
Junior (38 pts) leads over Nacional (37) on goal difference. The model now gives Junior a 34% chance of topping the semi-final group, Nacional 31%. Tolima’s title odds slipped to 12% after a costly defeat at Bucaramanga, while Millonarios’ congested schedule reduced their probability from 18% to 10%.
Relegation Watch
Patriotas (avg 0.86 pts/match) requires a miracle; simulations forecast an 82% drop to Primera B. Jaguares and Envigado are jumbled at 1.15 pts/match; the Week 22 H2H below could decide who sees safety.
Golden Boot Tracker
Dayro Moreno (Once Caldas) stays atop with 15 goals, though Nacional’s Rodallega, now at 14, owns the superior xG differential, hinting the veteran could finish first by November.
Betting Angles (18+ / please bet responsibly)
– Nacional -0.25 AH (Asian Handicap) at 1.83 — value against derby nerves
– Total goals under 2.25 in Tolima-Pereira at 1.78 — pair of top-6 defenses
– Envigado to win to-nil at 3.10 — mirrors defensive trend vs limping Alianza attack
Fantasy Focus
Differential pick: Andrés Arroyo (Envigado, $6.4m) — tasked with set-pieces, averaging 7.3 fantasy pts/home start; ownership under 4%. Captain play: Rodallega’s 6.02 xG over last six matches makes him elite at $10.2m.
Final Note
Colombia’s top flight is notoriously hard to predict, but data integration (shooting zones, travel fatigue, heat maps and rest days) trims variance. Keep checking for lineup leaks 60 minutes before kickoff — this league can turn on a single Egan Bernal-style late goal.
