Kashima Antlers vs. Yokohama F. Marinos – Saturday 14:00 JST
With the title race effectively settled, the focus shifts to ACL spots and relegation fire-fighting. Kashima’s four-match winning streak at Kashima Stadium is built on high-tempo wing play: 58 % of their goals since August have originated from crosses, the highest ratio in the division. Marinos, already qualified for next year’s Champions League, have rotated heavily; their expected-goals conceded has risen from 1.01 to 1.46 per 90 when Asano and Kida start together in midfield. Add in a forecast 29 °C kick-off temperature that favors the deeper home squad, and the model prices Kashima at 2.10 (47 % win probability). Recommendation: Kashima −0.25 Asian handicap.
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Cerezo Osaka – Saturday 17:00 JST
Frontale need victory to keep faint ACL hopes alive, but their press has lost its edge: PPDA has slipped from 9.2 to 11.7 since August. Cerezo arrive undefeated in six, largely because substitute Yamanaka adds vertical thrust (0.41 xGChain per 90 off the bench). A closer look at ball-progression numbers shows Cerezo progressing 15 % faster through midfield when Yamanaka is on. The visitor’s +0.5 goal line at 1.87 therefore carries value; sims mark it 57 % likely.
Gamba Osaka vs. Sagan Tosu – Sunday 15:00 JST
Relegation six-pointers are rarely pretty. Gamba changed shape to a 5-4-1 last month, cutting opponent big chances from 2.1 to 1.2 per match, yet scoring nosedived to 0.8 xG for. Tosu’s away record is wretched—no win in ten—but their set-piece output (0.38 xG per match, 3rd best) offers a route against a Gamba side that defends the back post poorly. Under 2.25 goals is the play at 1.84; seven of Gamba’s last nine stay under that line.
Long-shot flutter
Avispa Fukuoka have scored first in five straight meetings with FC Tokyo. Tokyo’s xGA in the opening 15 minutes this term is 0.28, joint-worst in the league. Avispa to net first at 2.60 (implied 38 %) is priced like a coin-flip when true probability edges closer to 45 %. Stake small.
Bottom line
Back Kashima on the handicap, Cerezo on the goal line, Gamama’s game to stay low, and sprinkle on Avispa’s fast start for plus-EV action in Japan’s closing gameweek.
