The new Liga Portugal season is only weeks away, and the balance of power already feels different. With new coaches, shrewd transfers and an unusual pre-season injury list at both Sporting CP and Porto, the title race is the most open it has been since 2001. Below is a data-driven look at the main contenders, the dark horses and the teams likely to battle relegation.
1. Sporting CP – still the team to beat
Ruben Amorim’s side collected 90 points last term while conceding just 19 goals, the lowest figure in Portugal since 2015. Their underlying numbers were even more dominant: 2.47 expected goals (xG) for per 90 and only 0.70 xG against. The loss of Manuel Ugarte to PSG is painful, but 20-year-old Morten Hjulmand arrives from Lecce with 3,200 minutes of Serie A experience and a 86 % pass-completion rate under pressure. If Viktor Gyökeres stays beyond deadline day, Sporting remain slight favourites at 34 % title probability (ClubElo model).
2. FC Porto – transitional semester
Sérgio Conceição enters his seventh full season, yet this feels like a reboot. Veteran defenders Pepe and Iván Marcano combined for 3,600 league minutes in 2023-24; both will be 37 before Christmas. Porto’s wage bill dropped 11 % after the sales of Otávio and Mehdi Taremi, but the club invested €19 m in 19-year-old winger Deniz Gül and versatile full-back Francisco Moura. Pre-season xG differential is only +0.62 – seventh in the league – and the model gives Porto a 27 % chance of reclaiming the crown. Expect a slow start; their depth will decide April form.
3. SL Benfica – highest upside, highest volatility
Roger Schmidt’s counter-pressing scheme produced 2.69 xG per 90 last season, yet Benfica melted in the Champions League qualifiers and conceded 1.31 goals per game after January. The €65 m sale of João Neves should finance two starting-calibre holders; if Florentino Luís finally stays healthy and the club lands a top-tier six (Marcos Antonio is the rumour), Benfica’s talent base is scary: David Neres, Rafa Silva, Ángel Di María and 18-year-old rising star Marcos Leonardo. The algorithm tags them at 30 % title odds, but variance is huge: standard deviation of simulated points is 11.4, highest among the big three.
4. Dark horses: Braga & Vitória SC
Braga finished fourth last year despite the fourth-lowest payroll. Their edge is continuity: Artur Jorge keeps his 4-2-3-1, and wing prodigy Rodrigo Gomes (born 2003) added 1.2 dribbles per 90 in his breakthrough campaign. The expected tally for Braga is 66 points; FiveThirtyEight gives them a 6 % chance to nick the league, higher than any non-Big-3 side since 2016. Vitória SC under Álvaro Pacheco play electric vertical football; they actually outran Benfica in progressive distance stats after March. Budget keeps their ceiling at a Champions-League playoff spot, not the title.
5. Relegation watch
Estrela da Amadora survived via play-offs despite the third-worst xGA (49.3). They lost both starting full-backs and will rely on 35-year-old former Spain international Álvaro Negredo for goals. AVS, newly promoted, hired tactician Ricardo Soares but won only 0.98 xG per game in Liga 2; the step-up looks steep. Models give both sides a 38 % probability of finishing 15th or below. Farense and Rio Ave sit marginally safer, yet five clubs are projected within a four-point band near the drop zone, meaning early-season form could swing fortunes dramatically.
Bottom-line prediction
1) Sporting 80 pts
2) Benfica 79 pts
3) Porto 74 pts
4) Braga 66 pts
5) Vitória SC 61 pts
Top scorer: Viktor Gyökeres (27 goals)
Biggest surprise: Moreirense to finish 8th
Relegated: Estrela, AVS, Estoril
Bet responsibly, follow the injury bulletins after the September international break, and remember: in Portugal, the title race is a three-horse sprint until the clocks change.
