The road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup is entering its decisive phase, and the latest round of qualifiers has thrown up more plot twists than a prestige TV drama. With 48 nations set to contest the expanded tournament across North America, the battle for the remaining slots is fiercer than ever. Here are the key takeaways and fearless forecasts from every confederation.
AFC – Asia’s tidal wave
Japan and Iran have already secured top-two finishes in their respective groups, but the real drama lies in the play-off lanes. Australia’s shock 2-1 loss in Bahrain leaves Graham Arnold’s side clinging to second spot in Group I; expect the Socceroos to edge Saudi Arabia on goal difference before dispatching UAE in the inter-continental play-off. South Korea, led by Son Heung-min’s seven-goal qualifying streak, will top Group B, while Uzbekistan are poised to claim their maiden World Cup berth as the third-place high-flyer.
CAF – Africa’s minefield
Morocco are the only team with a 100 % record after four matches, and Hakimi & Co. will cruise through Group E. The headline act is Group C: Nigeria, South Africa and Rwanda are locked on eight points apiece. Predictive models give the Super Eagles a 52 % probability of advancing, largely because their final two fixtures are against basement side Zimbabwe. Watch out for Senegal’s emerging striker Pape Matar Sarr; he’s expected to finish as Africa’s top scorer with nine goals.
CONCACAF – The new power map
The expanded 2026 format means USA, Mexico and Canada qualify automatically, freeing up three extra slots for the region. Panama have quietly assembled a golden generation and will finish top of the secondary table, while Costa Rica’s experience sees them edge Honduras on the last day. The big loser? Jamaica, whose dependence on Premier League loanees has backfired amid injuries; they’ll fall to fourth and enter a nerve-jangling play-off against Chile.
CONMEBOL – Messi’s farewell tour
Argentina need only a point from their remaining six games to book passage, but the story is who joins them. Brazil’s 1-0 defeat in Uruguay exposed Dorival Júnior’s midfield imbalance; expect a rebound victory over Colombia that seals qualification in March. The scrap for fifth place (and an inter-continental play-off) will go down to the wire: predictive analytics give Ecuador a 46 % chance, Paraguay 31 % and Chile 23 %. Final verdict: Ecuador’s youth revolution edges it.
OFC – Oceania’s one-shot wonder
New Zealand remain heavy favorites, but the Solomon Islands have recruited six NZ-based dual nationals, trimming the gap in Elo ratings to just 42 points. Fiji’s home form (unbeaten in eight) makes them the dark horse. Still, the All Whites’ experience at neutral venues (likely Doha again) sees them through to the inter-continental play-off against Chile, whom they’ll oust on penalties.
UEFA – The empire strikes back
The new Nations-League-linked format has created a maze, yet the front-runners are clear. France, England and Spain will win their groups with a match to spare. The seismic shock comes in Group G: Hungary lead Serbia by three points with two to play, and Rossi’s counter-press will hold up in Belgrade to snap a 56-year qualification drought. The three-path play-off system hands Poland (via Nations League ranking) a back-door route; Lewandowski’s last dance ends in a winner-takes-all showdown with Ukraine, where he bags a hat-trick in snowy Krakow.
Bold aggregate prediction
By the time the confetti settles in November 2025, we’ll see nine debutant nations in the expanded 48-team field: Uzbekistan, Panama, Kuwait, Guinea, Slovakia, Iceland, Finland, Syria and the Solomon Islands. Total goals across all qualifiers will smash the 2,700 barrier for the first time ever, driven by FIFA’s new 26-game group schedule that rewards attacking volume. Whatever unfolds, one certainty remains: the 2026 World Cup will arrive with more narratives, neutrals and novelty than any edition in history.
