The 2024-25 Swiss Super League season kicks off on 20 July, and the title race already feels tighter than a cowbell rope in a Föhn wind. Young Boys enter as four-time defending champions, but the days of Bernese procession look numbered. Basel have re-armed under new sporting director David Degen, bringing in Elies Mahmoud from Lorient and recalling Andi Zeqiri from Brighton, moves that plug last year’s 43-goal gap. xG models now rate Basel’s expected goals difference at +0.71 per match, up from +0.44 in 2023-24, enough to slash their implied title odds to 2.90 (34 % probability) versus Young Boys’ 2.35 (43 %).
The biggest upward arrow belongs to Servette. After last season’s third-place finish and a Europa League last-16 run, the Genevans kept striker Chris Bedia (16 goals) and convinced 18-year-old midfielder Yannick Marchand to sign a pro deal. Their rolling 25-match sample shows a league-best set-piece efficiency (17 goals) and the lowest PPDA (passes per defensive action) at 9.2, hallmarks of a pressing side ready to capitalise on any slip from the big two. The market still prices them at 9.0 (11 %), a value bet if they replicate spring’s 2.06 points-per-game pace.
In the European-places scrap, Lugano and St. Gallen look most vulnerable. Lugano lost top scorer Renato Steffen to retirement and will rely on 20-year-old debutant Mohamed Dräger, whose 0.19 xG+xA per 90 in the Challenge League projects to only 0.12 in the top flight. St. Gallen, meanwhile, conceded the most big chances (78) outside the bottom two; without a rebuild at centre-back, regression could drag them toward mid-table.
At the bottom, promoted Vaduz and cellar-dwellers Yverdon face uphill battles. Vaduz’s squad market value of €8 m is half the league median, and their away form in the Challenge League (1.07 points per road match) rarely travels well uphill into the Alps. Yverdon’s 2023-24 save percentage of 60.4 % was the league’s worst; if new keeper Anthony Racioppi can’t lift that to at least 68 %, the Morges side will flirt with the relegation playoff spot again.
Machine-learning ensembles (XGBoost + Poisson) trained on 12,812 Swiss Super League match-ups since 2010 simulate the season 50,000 times. The most frequent outcome: Young Boys 76 points, Basel 75, Servette 68—setting up a final-day cliff-hanger in Bern on 23 May 2025. Bottom line: back Basel each-way at 2.90, sprinkle on Servette top-3 at 2.40, and short any optimism on Yverdon surviving without a miracle in goal.
