Rome’s Stadio Olimpico will host the 2023-24 Coppa Italia final on Wednesday night, and the neutral forecast points to a knife-edge showdown between Juventus and Atalanta. Both sides arrive in radically different moods: Massimiliano Allegri’s Bianconeri limped over the Serie A finish line in third place with only one win in their last eight league matches, while Gian Piero Gasperini’s men secured fifth spot and dumped Leverkusen out of the Europa League three days ago.
Yet cup football often ignores league form. Juve’s route to the final was textbook Allegri: two 1-0 wins against Salernitana, a cagey extra-time dismissal of Lazio, and a 3-2 aggregate escape at Frosinone built on Federico Chiesa’s pace and the experience of Danilo and Bremer at the back. Allegri is expected to start the same XI that ground out the 0-0 in Bergamo on match-day 38, trusting Filip Kostić to track Atalanta turbo-wingback Matteo Ruggeri and hoping Adrien Rabiot’s late-season fatigue does not compromise midfield balance.
Atalanta, conversely, have scored 12 goals in their four cup ties and have never hidden their desire to lift the first piece of silverware in their 116-year history. Gasperini will probably restore rested starters after the gruelling Europa League semi-final: Teun Koopmeiners returns as the free roamer behind Gianluca Scamacca, while the back-three of Sead Kolašinac, Berat Djimsiti and Rafael Tolói will be asked to compress space and stop Dušan Vlahović turning inside the box. Charles De Ketelaere’s purple patch (five goals in his last six competitive games) makes him a prime candidate for an impact cameo after 70 minutes.
Data models give the Goddess a slight edge because of momentum and superior expected-goal counts, but models rarely factor in Allegri’s allergy to open football in finals. Betting markets have drifted toward a 1-1 after 90 minutes (best price 5/1), with Scamacca and Vlahović joint favourites to score first. A penalty shoot-out is trading at 4/1, and given Juventus’ recent record—three of their last four knockout ties went to extra time—many insiders expect spot-kicks to decide the destiny of the trophy.
Key battleground: the left-hand side. Kostić against Davide Zappacosta is not just winger versus wing-back; it is also Allegri’s safety valve against Atalanta’s overloads. If Kostić pins Zappacosta deep, Juve can smuggle counter-attacks toward Vlahović. If Zappacosta wins the duel, expect Koopmeiners and Éderson to pour forward and expose the space behind Juve’s midfield line.
Prediction: score draw after 90 minutes, Atalanta edge it 5-4 on penalties, handing Gasperini the trophy that has eluded him for eight years in Bergamo. Whatever happens, the final feels like the night Serie A’s most progressive attack meets its most cynical defence—an Italian cup classic in the making.
