The 2024-25 Croatian Football League (HNL) is only six match-days old, yet patterns are already emerging that allow data-driven models to project the final table with surprising clarity. Using a blend of Elo ratings, expected goals (xG) from the first 540 minutes, squad market value refreshed after the summer window, and travel-distance fatigue indices, the algorithm run by regional analytics site HNL Insight spits out the following probabilities for the championship:
Dinamo Zagreb – 58 %
Rijeka – 21 %
Osijek – 11 %
Hajduk Split – 7 %
All others combined – 3 %
Why is Dinamo still the strong favorite despite selling defender Šutalo to Ajax and midfielder Ademi to Al-Rayyan? First, their depth: the second-string eleven would still rank third in squad value. Second, their xG differential after six rounds is +1.4 per 90’, double that of the next best side. Finally, the fixture schedule is generous; of their eight hardest away trips, five fall in the second half of the season when European commitments lighten.
Rijeka’s 21 % shot is driven by a stingy back line—only 3.9 xGA so far—and the arrival of 19-year-old winger Matija Frigan, whose 0.48 xG+xA per 90 leads the league. Osijek’s new manager, 33-year-old Ivica Olić, has installed a vertical 3-4-3 that has already yielded wins over Dinamo (Supercup) and Hajduk, but European qualifiers stretched the squad thin and the model docks them for bench quality.
Hajduk’s 7 % may shock their loyal fans, yet the numbers are merciless: a league-worst 14 % conversion rate inside the box and a 38-year-old captain, Lovre Kalinić, whose post-shot xG-minus-goals allowed is minus-2.1, meaning opponents are finishing unsustainably well against him. Regression could come, but it may be too late by spring.
Relegation probabilities are equally lopsided. Newly promoted Rudeš sits at 63 % to drop, followed by Istra 1961 (42 %) and Slaven Belupo (25 %). Rudeš’ squad value of €4.1 m is less than Dinamo’s estimated bench, and their xGA per game (2.3) is championship-level bad.
Golden-boot projections favor Dinamo’s Bruno Petković (31 %), Rijeka’s Frigan (22 %), and Osijek’s Mijo Caktaš (18 %). Petković’s edge comes from penalties—he has already taken four in six matches—and from set-piece volume; Dinamo average 8.2 corners per game, highest in the decade-long data set.
Bottom line: unless an injury crisis strikes Maksimir or Rijeka finds a striker to pair with Frigan before the winter window, the blue ribbon will stay in Zagreb for a 24th time in 28 editions. The model’s 90 % confidence interval places Dinamo between 71 and 84 points, comfortably clear of Rijeka’s projected 62–74 range. For neutral fans, the real drama may be the fight for Europe: only four points currently separate second from sixth, and that chaos is harder to predict than the inevitable title procession.
