When the final whistle blew in Qatar, Croatia walked off with a bronze medal and a warning to Europe: the golden generation is aging, but the next wave knows how to win knockout games. Fast-forward 18 months and Zlatko Dalić’s side sits sixth in the FIFA rankings, unbeaten in ten competitive matches, and seeded in the top pot for the Euro 2024 draw. Bookmakers still price them as fifth-favorites—behind France, England, Spain, and host Germany—yet every metric that predicted their deep runs in 2018 and 2022 is flashing green again.
The midfield engine remains the best in the tournament. Luka Modrić averaged 72 successful passes per 90 in the Nations League finals—only 12 percent behind his 2018 peak—and his minutes are being managed so carefully at Real Madrid that he will arrive in Germany with fresher legs than Jude Bellingham or Declan Rice. Alongside him, Marcelo Brozović has spent a year in Saudi Arabia covering more ground per match (11.8 km) than any European-based midfielder, while Mateo Kovačić is enjoying the best creative season of his career at Manchester City, already matching his five-year assist high before March. The trio’s chemistry is so instinctive that Croatia’s build-up speed is actually faster without a traditional striker: in the 4-0 playoff demolition of Turkey, Dalić used a 4-3-3 “false nine” that completed 92 percent of passes in the final third, forcing defenses to choose between pressing Modrić or shielding the penalty spot.
The age curve is offset by a generation of 21- to 24-year-olds who already own silverware. Joško Gvardiol, fresh off a £77 million move to Manchester City, has added ruthless one-v-one defending to his ball-progression superpower; no center-back in Europe’s top five leagues has carried the ball into the final third more times this season. Right-back Josip Stanišić, on loan at Leverkusen from Bayern, is part of Xabi Alonso’s unbeaten machine and has learned the tactical foul timing that once eluded Croatia on the break. Up front, 21-year-old Rijeka striker Marco Pašalić leads the Croatian league in non-penalty xG (0.68 per 90) and possesses the aerial threat that Andrej Kramarić and Bruno Petković lack, giving Dalić the option to morph from tiki-taka to target-man mode within the same match.
Draw analysis also favors the checkered shirts. Grouped with Spain, Italy, and Albania, Croatia avoids the heavyweight bracket until at least the semifinals. Spain’s high press can be dismembered by Brozović’s diagonal switches—Croatia beat La Roja 3-2 in the Nations League last June with exactly that pattern—while Italy’s lack of a genuine striker plays into Croatia’s comfort defending without the ball. Winning the group sets up a Round-of-16 clash against the second-best third-place team—likely Slovenia or Czechia—before a quarter-final with Denmark or the Netherlands, opponents Croatia has eliminated in each of the last two major tournaments.
The analytics mirror the eye test. Opta’s squad-valued model gives Croatia the third-highest probability (11.4 %) of reaching the final, behind only France (19 %) and England (17 %), precisely because their path avoids both giants until Berlin. Betting markets still lag, offering 17-1 on a Croatia triumph—longer odds than they faced before the 2018 World Cup, when they eventually finished second.
In knockout football, compact lines and midfield control age like fine Plavac Mali wine. Croatia’s average defensive action distance (38.2 meters from goal) is the lowest among qualified nations, a metric that has correlated with deep runs in every Euros since 2008. If one moment captures their trajectory, it happened in Bjelopolje in March: Modrić nutmegged a teenage defender in training, then grinned at reporters and said, “I’m not here for a farewell tour; I’m here to collect another medal.” Predict sentimental exits at your peril—Croatia’s third-place finish in Qatar was supposed to be the epilogue, yet the numbers insist the story still has silver pages left to write.
