Portugal enters Euro 2024 with a squad balanced between serial winners and fearless youth, making them the tournament’s most intriguing proposition. Cristiano Ronaldo’s last European dance grabs headlines, but the real story lies in Roberto Martínez’s tactical reboot. Since taking over, the Spanish coach has ditched Fernando Santos’s conservative shell, unleashing a 3-4-3 that turns possession into lightning transitions. The numbers are stark: 3.2 expected goals per match in qualifying, the highest of any nation, and a defensive record trimmed to 0.5 xGA per game once the system clicked in September.
The midfield is where Portugal win the tournament. Bernardo Silva operates as a free-roaming “fake 10,” drifting wide to overload zones vacated by João Canceli’s inverted runs. Behind him, Vitinha anchors with a 92% passing accuracy under pressure, while Bruno Fernandes is granted license to hit early diagonals that Ronaldo and Rafael Leão chase at 35 km/h. This three-man engine room allows Martínez to press in a 3-1-3-3 shape, suffocating build-ups before launching five-second counterattacks that average 7.1 passes—shortest of any contender.
Depth is no longer a buzzword but a weapon. Diogo Jota and Gonçalo Ramos offer contrasting striker profiles; João Félix can drop into midfield to create a diamond; Nuno Mendes and Canceli swap wingback roles mid-match without altering structure. In goal, Diogo Costa’s 75% save percentage in the Champions League erases the lingering doubt that cost Portugal in 2021. Even Ronaldo, now a reduced-pitch striker, remains elite at converting half-chances: his 0.46 non-penalty xG per 90 in the Saudi Pro League hints at enduring instinct.
Draw analysis slots Portugal into a cushy path: a group stage against Turkey, Czechia and playoff winner Georgia, then a likely round-of-16 tie versus Denmark or Hungary. Win the group, and they avoid France until the final. Elo simulations give Portugal a 14% title probability—fourth behind England, France and Spain—but those models underrate Martínez’s stylistic edge. If Ronaldo accepts a super-sub role by the quarter-finals, Portugal’s ceiling rises to co-favorite status. Expect semifinals at minimum, and if Leão maintains his dribble-success rate north of 60%, Lisbon might party on July 14.
