Saturday’s cup clash at the Mewa Arena pits mid-table Bundesliga side 1. FSV Mainz 05 against 3. Liga promotion-chasers Dynamo Dresden, and the betting market still can’t decide whether an upset is brewing or the favorite will cruise. Mainz enter as -175 favorites (draftKGS) but have rotated heavily in every prior round, while Dresden arrive on a six-game unbeaten streak and have already eliminated two top-flight clubs (Union Berlin and Bochum) in this season’s DFB-Pokal.
Tactical snapshot
Bo Henriksen has shifted Mainz to a hybrid 4-2-3-1 that presses high before dropping into a compact 5-3-2 without the ball. The problem: only three of the regular league starters—center-backs Anthony Caci and Moritz Jenz plus holding midfielder Nadiem Amiri—are expected to keep their spots after last weekend’s 1-1 draw with Freiburg. That means minutes for academy winger Nelson Weiper (two goals in 230 Bundesliga minutes) and 19-year-old full-back Maxim Dal. Dresden will look to overload Dal’s flank, because left-footed wide man Ahmet Arslan has created a team-high 2.3 chances per 90 in league play and loves to cut inside onto his stronger foot.
Key matchup: Schmidt vs. Kutschke
Mainz keeper Robin Zentner has the league’s fifth-best post-shot xG minus goals allowed (+2.8), but he struggles when defenders block his sight lines. Dresden skipper Stefan Kutschke, 34, still generates 0.17 xG per 90, and 41 % of his shots come from first-contact finishes inside the six-yard box. If Dresden win an early corner—Mainz concede the third-most in the Bundesliga—expect a near-post routine aimed directly at Kutschke’s forehead.
Expected line-ups
Mainz (4-2-3-1): Zentner – Da Costa, Jenz, Caci, Dal – Amiri, Krauß – Onisiwo, Gruda, Weiper – Ajorque
Dresden (3-5-2): Broll – Akono, Sollbauer, Mai – Arslan, Zimmermann, Girschkowski, Königsdörffer, Heise – Kutschke, Daferner
Numbers to know
– Mainz have scored first in 9 of 11 home cup ties since 2016.
– Dresden have taken the lead in 7 of 9 competitive away fixtures this term.
– The last three H2H meetings (2017-2021) all went under 2.5 goals.
Prediction model
Using a blended Elo + xG simulator (10,000 runs), Mainy win 54 %, Dresden 22 %, and the draw 24 %. Yet cup noise—rotation, single leg, away-goal stress—lifts the underdog cover probability to 57 %. The likeliest scoreline lands 1-1 after 90 minutes, with a 32 % chance of extra time.
Betting angle
Mainz -1 Asian handicap (+105) looks thin given rotation risk. Instead, play both teams to score & under 3.5 goals (-115) and sprinkle a small stake on 1-1 correct score at +600. Expect a cagey first hour before Dresden gamble on extra time; if Mainz crack first, the “draw no bet” on Dresden at +270 becomes live.
