Riyadh, May 2024 – With three matchdays left, the Saudi Pro League title race has narrowed to a two-horse duel between defending champions Al-Hilal and perennial rivals Al-Nassr. Data-driven forecasting models that weight expected goals (xG), recent form, injury status and fixture difficulty give Al-Hilal a 62 % probability of clinching a record-extending 19th crown, while Al-Nassr sit at 35 %. The remaining 3 % is split among three outsiders led by Al-Ahli.
Key factors tilting the scales toward Jorge Jesus’ side are:
1. Schedule softness: Al-Hilal’s last three opponents average 1.18 points per game (PPG) this season, the weakest slate among the top four. Al-Nassr still face away trips to fourth-placed Al-Taawoun (1.71 PPG) and in-form Al-Ettifaq (1.53 PPG).
2. Squad health: MRI scans released Friday confirm that Al-Hilal’s talismanic striker Aleksandar Mitrović has recovered from the mild thigh strain that sidelined him one week. Al-Nassr, meanwhile, will monitor Cristiano Ronaldo’s bruised fibula until matchday; medical staff list him as “75 % available,” reducing his predicted 90-minute output from 0.74 to 0.59 xG.
3. Depth metrics: FiveThirtyEight’s SPI module rates Al-Hilal’s bench strength—measured by minutes-weighted ability—at 78 % of the starting XI, tops in the league. Al-Nassr’s depth is 64 %, a gap likely to surface when rotation becomes compulsory in mid-week fixtures.
Predicted final table (Monte Carlo simulation, 50 000 runs):
1. Al-Hilal – 71 pts (GD +46)
2. Al-Nassr – 69 pts (GD +42)
3. Al-Ahli – 59 pts
4. Al-Taawoun – 56 pts
Individual awards projection:
Golden Boot: Mitrović 27 goals (0.73 xG/90)
Top Creator: Malcom 13 assists (0.41 xA/90)
Best Keeper: Bono – 15 clean sheets, 78 % save rate
Upset watch: Round 30’s coastal trip to Al-Fateh presents the highest variance for Al-Hilal; the model flags a 17 % chance of a shock defeat that could flip the script if Al-Nassr win their corresponding fixture 24 hours earlier.
Bottom-half survival: Abha and Al-Riyadh are 88 % and 85 % likely to fill the relegation slots, while Al-Hazem, now under caretaker Yannick Ferrera, holds a 42 % probability of escaping via the play-off against the First Division’s runner-up.
Betting edge: the current title market still offers Al-Hilal at 1.80 (implied 55 %), leaving a 7 % value gap versus the model’s 62 %. Sharps are advised to hedge with a half-stake on Al-Nassr double-chance in the head-to-head on 19 May; if Ronaldo starts, live-betting Al-Nassr’s win probability could spike from 36 % pre-game to 45 % within the opening quarter-hour, creating an in-play scalping window.
Verdict: expect fireworks, but expect Al-Hilal to cross the line first.
