The road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup is already paved with intrigue, and the qualifying campaigns promise more plot twists than ever before. With the tournament expanding to 48 teams, confederations have rejigged formats, opening doors for nations that once watched from the sidelines. Below are seven fearless predictions that could redefine the global football landscape before a ball is even kicked in North America.
1. Africa will claim an extra scalp—Nigeria will miss out.
The Super Eagles boast talent across Europe’s top leagues, yet internal federation chaos and a brutal qualifying draw pits them against an in-form Ghana and resurgent Guinea. Expect fireworks in Kumasi and Conakry, but Nigeria’s away-form wobble under a rookie coach will cost them on the final matchday.
2. Uruguay’s rebuild stumbles, and Marcelo Bielsa walks.
CONMEBOL’s nine-round marathon leaves no margin for error. After a bright Copa América, Uruguay’s ageing midfield is exposed by the altitude of La Paz and Barranquilla’s humidity. A streak of three straight losses sees Bielsa resign in theatrical fashion, triggering a caretaker era that slides Uruguay into the intercontinental playoff—where they lose to Morocco.
3. The AFC’s third automatic berth goes to Uzbekistan, not Australia.
Australia’s golden generation has retired, and Graham Arnold’s side is caught in transition. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan’s Olympic silver medalists hit their prime, marshaled by Serie A-linked goalkeeper Abduvohid Nematov. A dramatic 1-0 win in Melbourne on matchday ten seals history as the White Wolves outpace the Socceroos on goal difference.
4. Europe’s “Group of Death” produces the ultimate shock: Italy finish fourth.
Drawn with Spain, Croatia, and Ukraine, the Azzurri pay for tactical conservatism. After a 0-0 at home to Ukraine, they need victory in Zagreb but crumble 3-1. For the second straight World Cup, Italy watches from home, prompting a complete federation overhaul and the appointment of its first foreign manager since 1950.
5. Canada tops the Octagonal, not Mexico or the United States.
John Herdman’s side, fueled by a Bundesliga-laden core (Davies, David, Larin), goes unbeaten at home in winter conditions. A 2-1 snow-globe win over the U.S. in Edmonton becomes iconic, while Mexico’s new era under a Spanish coach unravels in the Azteca air at 7,200 ft—draws against Panama and Honduras prove fatal.
6. New Zealand finally loses an OFC playoff—to the Solomon Islands.
The Oceania pathway is no longer a cakewalk. With the winner facing CONCACAF’s fourth-best, the Solomons upset the All Whites on penalties in Honiara. New Zealand’s domestic-based squad is out-run by a side featuring sprightly Norway-based teenagers, ending a 40-year monopoly.
7. Intercontinental playoffs: Morocco and Ukraine advance.
Morocco’s experience edges Uruguay in a tactical chess match in Doha, while Ukraine rides a wave of emotional support to edge the Solomons in stoppage-time drama. Both nations become the storylines of winter 2025, reminding fans that qualifying remains the planet’s most unforgiving theater.
Fasten your seatbelts—over the next 18 months, these predictions could look either prophetic or pitiful, but the beautiful game guarantees one thing: the improbable is always inevitable.
