Saturday’s Volksparkstadion showdown pitches promotion-chasing FC St. Pauli against fifth-placed Borussia Dortmund, and the form book screams one outcome: an away win, but not without a fight.
St. Pauli arrived in the top flight buoyant after a dominant 2. Bundesliga campaign, yet their opening months have exposed the gap in depth and ruthless finishing. Jos Luhukay’s squad presses aggressively and leads the league in tackles per game, but they have managed only nine goals in eleven matches—four of them from set pieces. Keeper Nikola Vasilj has kept them in contests, yet when opponents pin full-backs wide, central channels open; Bayern and Leipzig each exploited that space for three-goal bursts.
Dortmund, by contrast, look re-energised under Edin Terzić 2.0. A compact 4-2-3-1, anchored by Emre Can and Salih Özcan, allows BVB to win the ball high, while Julian Brandt’s free-roaming role links seamlessly with Donyell Malen’s diagonal runs. After 11 match-days they average 2.3 expected goals for, second only to Leverkusen, and their away record (four wins, one draw) is the league’s best. Sebastien Haller’s return to fitness offers a genuine No. 9 alternative, though Youssoufa Moukoko’s pace is likelier to trouble St. Pauli’s high line.
Key match-ups will decide the margin. St. Pauli left-back Jackson Irvine must curb Malen’s inside thrusts; on the opposite flank, Dortmund’s young right-back Julian Ryerson—eager to impress against his former club—faces sparky winger Johannes Eggestein. In central midfield, Marcel Hartel’s distribution is vital for the hosts, but the athletic double pivot of Can-Özcan should shade second balls. Expect Karim Adeyemi to enter after 60 minutes, stretching tired home legs on the break.
Predicted line-ups
St. Pauli (4-2-3-1): Vasilj; Paqarada, Smith, Medic, Irvine; Dzwigala, Irvine; Eggestein, Hartel, Daschner; Burgstaller.
Dortmund (4-2-3-1): Kobel; Ryerson, Hummels, Schlotterbeck, Bensebaini; Can, Özcan; Malen, Brandt, Reus; Moukoko.
Betting angle
Bookmakers list Dortmund at 1.95, draw at 3.60, and St. Pauli at 3.90. Given BVB’s scoring volume and St. Pauli’s reliance on set-piece variance, the value sits with Dortmund to win and both teams to score (3.40). A 3-1 scoreline for the visitors, Moukoki and Brandt on target, feels the most plausible path.
Bottom line
Expect atmosphere, intensity, and moments of Kiez magic, but Dortmund’s superior finishing and deeper bench should tip the contest. Prediction: St. Pauli 1 – 3 Borussia Dortmund.
