The 2023-24 Europa Conference League enters its decisive phase, and the continent’s third-tier competition has never felt more alive. With the quarter-finals behind us and the semi-finals looming, four surprise packages remain: Club Brugge, Fiorentina, Aston Villa, and Olympiacos. Here is a data-driven prediction of how the story ends.
1. Form Curve & Squad Depth
Fiorentina’s 20-game unbeaten run in Europe (W15 D5) is the longest among the finalists, orchestrated by Nicolas González’s 8 knockout-stage involvements. Aston Villa’s 22-goal Europa haul is the highest, yet their XI is the thinnest—only 13 players have logged 300+ minutes. Olympiacos possess the deepest bench (29 different scorers this season), while Club Brugge have tightened defensively, conceding just 0.78 xG per match since February.
2. Tactical Match-ups
Fiorentina’s 4-2-3-1 pressing block suffocates build-ups that progress through half-spaces—exactly where Villa orchestrate 42 % of their attacks. Olympiacos’ 3-5-2 counters wide overloads, a staple of Brugge’s 3-4-3. In short, the draw pairings favor the Italians and the Greeks in the semis.
3. Key Metrics
Expected Goals difference across knockout rounds:
Fiorentina +7.4
Olympiacos +5.9
Aston Villa +4.2
Club Brugge +3.1
4. Injury Watch
Villa will be without Emiliano Buendía and Tyrone Mings; Olympiacos restored Kostas Fortounis after a four-week calf issue; Fiorentina report a clean bill; Brugge miss goalkeeper Simon Mignolet until the final.
5. Simulation Outcome
10,000 Monte Carlo runs, weighted by SPI ratings, travel distance, and squad rotation probability, yield the following trophy probabilities:
Fiorentina 46 %
Olympiacos 27 %
Aston Villa 18 %
Club Brugge 9 %
Projection
Semi-finals:
Fiorentina 3-2 agg. vs Aston Villa
Olympiacos 4-3 agg. vs Club Brugge
Final (AEK Arena, Athens, 29 May):
Olympiacos 1-2 Fiorentina (AET)
Goalscorers: Batshuayi (64’), Beltrán (78’), González (105+1’)
MVP: Nicolás González
If the numbers hold, La Viola will collect a second continental title 64 years after their 1961 Cup Winners’ Cup triumph, making Vincenzo Italiano the first coach to win consecutive Europa Conference League crowns.
