France Prediction: A Quiet Shift Toward Renewable Dominance by 2030

By 2030, France is poised to surpass its official target of 40 % renewable electricity, quietly reaching 47 % through an unexpected alliance of shrinking household demand, accelerated offshore wind, and record-low solar costs. State forecasters now concede that if current subsidy-free solar growth continues—adding 3.8 GW per year without government support—nuclear’s share will fall below 50 % for the first time since the late 1970s. The pivot is driven less by policy ideology than by economics: new large-scale solar bids averaged €32 /MWh in 2024, undercutting even fully amortized nuclear reactors when carbon and ramping costs are included. Meanwhile, the first 1 GW of floating wind in the Mediterranean, long dismissed as a boutique experiment, is forecast to reach €55 /MWh by 2028, squeezing mid-merit gas plants out of the daily load curve. Grid operator RTE’s latest ten-year outlook, to be published next month, will acknowledge that winter peak demand has already peaked; efficient heat pumps and passive-building retrofits are shaving 0.9 % off national load every year, even as GDP grows. The implication: France will become a net exporter of green electricity during spring and autumn, forcing neighboring markets to redesign intraday auctions. Investors should watch the impending rules on hybrid solar-storage parks; the government is expected to classify them as “non-intermittent,” unlocking access to the capacity market and tripling project IRRs overnight.