The third-tier UEFA tournament returns in June 2024 with a new cycle of group-stage staples, Thursday-night drama, and first-time silverware dreams. Here is data-driven, form-based foresight on who will still be dancing next May in the final, likely staged at Istanbul’s Beşiktaş Stadium.
Group-Stage Favorites
1. Chelsea – Even with squad rotation, the Blues’ depth under Mauricio Pochettino dwarfs most rivals; FiveThirtyEight gives them a 21 % chance of winning the whole competition.
2. Fiorentina – Runners-up last year and armed with a full off-season under Vincenzo Italiano’s high-press system, La Viola’s ELO rating is the highest among non-Champions-League dropouts.
3. Lille OSC – Les Dogues’ advanced metrics (xGD +0.97 per match in Ligue 1) translate neatly into European minnow match-ups.
Dark-Horse Candidates
– Real Betis: Manuel Pellegrini’s side kept the eighth-best possession figure in La Liga; Isco’s creative rebirth matters in knockout ties.
– AZ Alkmaar: Young talents (Myron van Brederode, Ernest Poku) plus the Eredivisie’s fastest attacking transition could punish slower Continental back lines.
– KAA Gent: The Belgian press machine averaged 1.94 xG at home last year; the Ghelamco Arena is becoming a fortress.
Potential Giant-Killers
Look out for Slovácko (Czech Republic), who topped their group in 2022-23, and HJK Helsinki, whose artificial pitch in October froze out two favored sides. Group-stage draws are kinder to seeded teams, but single-legged knockouts flip the script—expect at least one Nordic or Balkan club in the quarter-finals.
Golden Boot Prediction
Arthur Cabral (Fiorentina) – 27-year-old Brazilian hit 38 goals across all competitions in the past two seasons; Conference-level centre-backs simply can’t handle his aerial volume (4.1 aerial wins per 90).
Young Player to Watch
Zeno Debast (19, Anderlecht): Belgium’s next ball-playing centre-back will log Europa-level minutes in the fall, priming him for a step-up in spring.
Quarter-Final Forecast
Chelsea vs Lille, Fiorentina vs AZ, Betis vs Gent, Besiktas vs HJK (yes, romance of the draw). Chelsea’s bench talent edges Lille over two legs; Fiorentina outscores AZ; Betis’ experience topples Gent; Besiktas rides home support past HJK.
Semi-Final Lineup
Chelsea-Fiorentina rematch from 2022-23 Premier League friendlies, and a Iberian derby: Betis vs Besiktas. Stamford Bridge’s financial muscle should see them through, while Betis’ wide overloads exploit Besiktas’ thin full-back department.
2025 Final Prediction
May 28, Istanbul: Chelsea 2-1 Real Betis after extra time, with Noni Madueke’s 115’-minute winner sealing a first-ever UEFA Conference League crown for the Londoners and gifting Pochettino a long-awaited continental trophy.
Betting Market Nuggets
– Chelsea to lift the cup sits at 5.50 (decimal) in early June; that will shorten once domestic fixtures thin out bigger squads.
– Over 2.5 goals in Fiorentina away matches hit 68 % last year—pair them with both-teams-to-score for parlay value.
– Each-way dark horse: AZ at 26.00 returns half-odds for the final, juicy for a team that already made a Europa semi in 2021-22.
Bottom line: The Conference League remains glorious chaos, but bigger budgets and smarter analytics increasingly trim the fairy-tale field. Expect household names in Istanbul, yet enjoy the inevitable fall surprises that make Thursday nights unforgettable.
