Argentina enters the 2024 Copa America as defending champions and favorites to lift the trophy again. With Lionel Scaloni’s squad blending veteran stars and rising talents, sportsbooks price La Albiceleste at +250 to win the tournament, narrowly ahead of Brazil (+275). Below are data-driven predictions for group-stage fixtures, knockout pathways, and the likely starting lineup.
Group Stage Forecasts
Match 1 vs. Canada (Mercedes-Benz Stadium, 20 June)
FiveThirtyEight gives Argentina a 72 % win probability; expected goals (xG) model projects 2.1–0.7 in their favor. Canada’s high press leaves space between the lines, an area Lionel Messi exploited for three through-ball assists in the 2022 Finalissima. Prediction: 3-1 Argentina.
Match 2 vs. Chile (East Rutherford, 25 June)
Chile’s 4-3-3 block ranks third in South America for possession won in the final third, but Argentina’s counter-press regains the ball within 6.8 seconds on average, the fastest rate in CONMEBOL qualifying. Look for Lautaro Martínez to capitalize on second-ball situations. Prediction: 2-0 Argentina.
Match 3 vs. Peru (Miami Gardens, 1 July)
Peru’s low defensive block concedes only 0.87 xGA per game, yet they struggle against inverted full-backs. Expect Scaloni to deploy Marcos Acuña cutting inside, overload the left channel, and deliver early crosses for Julián Álvarez. Prediction: 2-0 Argentina, topping Group A on nine points.
Knockout Projections
Quarter-final: likely opponent Mexico or Ecuador. Elo ratings gap of +168 favors Argentina; simulation runs show 68 % advancement probability.
Semi-final: potential blockbuster vs. Uruguay. Federico Valverde’s box-to-box engine vs. Rodrigo De Paul’s ball progression will decide midfield. Argentina’s set-piece efficiency (0.28 goals per game) edges Uruguay’s 0.19, tilting the odds 58 %-42 %.
Final: a 63 % likelihood of Brazil rematch. If so, keep an eye on Emiliano Martínez—his penalty-save rate of 38 % since 2021 could be decisive in another shoot-out.
Tactical XI & Key Metrics
Scaloni’s preferred 4-3-3:
Martínez; Molina, Romero, Otamendi, Acuña; De Paul, Mac Allister, Lo Celso; Messi, L. Martínez, Álvarez.
Average age: 28.4; caps: 54 per starter; collective market value €550 m.
Expected goals created from open play: 1.82 per 90, highest among Copa America entrants.
Betting Angles
Golden Boot: Lautaro Martínez +700—leads qualifying with 0.87 goals per 90.
Player shots on target: Messi 2.3 per game offers value at -115 vs. Peru.
Clean sheet odds: Argentina to shut out Chile sits at +130, aligning with 55 % implied probability versus 62 % model estimate, yielding positive EV.
Bottom Line
Barring major injuries, Argentina’s balanced squad, tournament experience, and Messi’s late-career playmaking give them a 34 % chance to go back-to-back, nearly double the next-best contender. Wager responsibly and expect another deep run capped by silverware in Miami on 14 July.
