Round 9 of the 2023-24 Belgian Pro League arrives with the table tighter than ever—only four points separate leaders Genk from eighth-place Cercle Brugge. Here are data-driven predictions for every Wednesday night fixture, plus one value wager worth staking.
1. Genk vs. Sint-Truiden
Genk’s home xG (expected goals) average of 2.11 per match is the best in the league, while Sint-Truiden have conceded nine goals in their last four away trips. Combine Genk’s 71 % possession share at the Luminus Arena with STVV’s injury crisis at left-back and the hosts should win by at least two.
Prediction: Genk –2 AH (Asian Handicap) at 2.05
2. Union SG vs. Royal Antwerp
The champions finally kept a clean sheet last Friday, but Union’s 4-2-3-1 press has already forced 12 high turnovers—three more than any Belgian side. Antwerp’s buildup relies heavily on Vertex pass-master Alderete; deny him time and Union edge it.
Prediction: Union SG DNB (Draw No Bet) at 1.83
3. Club Brugge vs. Westerlo
Ferran Til’s return gives Club Brugge the vertical runner they missed in the 1-0 loss to Mechelen. Westerlo’s zonal back four is vulnerable to quick switches, and Club average 5.8 accurate long passes per 90 to exploit that lane.
Prediction: Over 3.5 goals at 2.40
4. Anderlecht vs. Mechelen
The Purple & White are unbeaten in five, but underlying numbers show a 1.55 xGA per game—worst among the top six. Mechelen’s set-piece ratio (0.38 goals per match) is second only to Antwerp, and Anderlecht concede 0.44. Expect goals at both ends before the home side’s individual class tells late.
Prediction: BTTS + Over 2.5 at 1.95
5. OH Leuven vs. Eupen
Leuven manager Óscar Gómez has switched to a back three, and the side recorded 31 final-third entries vs. Charleroi—season high. Eupen remain bottom with an xG differential of –0.74 per away game. Home win to nil looks solid.
Prediction: Leuven Win to Nil at 2.60
Value Acca of the Week
Combine Genk –1, Union DNB and Leuven Win to Nil for a 6.3 odds treble. Stake 0.75 units; the implied probability of 15.9 % is well above the data model’s true 20 % edge.
Bottom line: expect goals in Bruges, a statement win for Union, and Genk to underline their title credentials before Sunday’s top-of-table showdown at Antwerp.
