Goalkeepers are already feeling the pressure as data models flip the Clausura script. With six matchdays left, here is a data-driven Liga MX prediction spotlighting the clubs most likely to lift the trophy in May.
1. Monterrey – 27 % title chance
Projected finish: 1st (36 pts)
Why they top the model: Best expected-goal difference (+1.18 per 90) and the league’s deepest bench. Víctor Guzmán’s midfield rebound plus Germán Berterame’s box presence keep them in every game.
2. América – 24 %
Projected: 2nd (35 pts)
André Jardine’s rotation policy limits fatigue; Diego Valdés’ chance-creation rate (3.12 per 90) is elite. The only red flag: away goals conceded on set pieces.
3. UANL – 19 %
Projected: 3rd (33 pts)
A soft early schedule hides attacking volatility. If André-Pierre Gignon regains France form, their defensive block (third-fewest xGA) becomes a trump card.
4. Guadalajara – 12 %
Projected: 4th (32 pts)
Veljko Paunović finally found a pressing angle that turns recovery into vertical passes for Roberto Alvarado. Depth at centre-back remains the weak link.
5. Toluca – 8 %
Projected: 5th (30 pts)
Highest raw shot volume but finishing variance haunts them; 39 % of goals come from outside the box—an unsustainable recipe.
Dark horse: León – 5 %
Projected: 6th (28 pts)
Alphonso “Ponchito” Castro’s late runs stretch low blocks. If they win their game in hand, the market still underrates their playoff ceiling.
Relegation watch (coefficient)
The table is safe from direct relegation this season, yet FC Juárez (1.089 coef) and Mazatlán (1.134) could lose financial incentives if they sink further.
Golden boot lean
Unam’s Juan Dinenno edges Berterame, 14–12, on penalty duty.
Bracketology cheat sheet
Expect a repeat of last knockout chaos; the model gives only a 37 % probability that any top-three seed reaches the final, so brace for upsets.
Bottom line
Monterrey’s squad health and shot-suppression metrics make them the safest bet, but América’s superstar differential plus playoff experience guarantees no coronation until the last whistle in Estadio BBVA.
