The 2024-25 Ligue 1 season enters its last ninety minutes with the title, European places and survival still mathematically alive. Here are data-driven predictions for every storyline that matters on 18 May.
1. Title Race
PSG (76 pts, +54 GD) visit 14th-placed Le Havre. Even a draw guarantees a 12th championship in 13 years, but Luis Enrique wants a win to hit 80 points. Our model awards PSG 87 % win probability; expect a 3-1 scoreline that crowns the Parisians before kick-off in Nice v Lyon.
2. Champions League Quartet
Second place (automatic UCL group stage) is still open. Brest (65 pts, +24 GD) hold the slot, yet Monaco (64, +25) and Lille (63, +20) lurk.
– Brest need a point at Toulouse (46 % historical away win rate).
– Monaco are 72 % favorites vs. relegated Clermont.
– Lille travel to relegation-haunted Metz where a 54 % win chance exists, but GD swing required is three goals.
Prediction: Monaco 3-0, Brest 1-1, Lille 2-0 → Monaco leapfrog Brest on goals scored tie-breaker.
3. Europa League & Conference
Fourth enters the Europa League; fifth secures a Conference League berth. Marseille (52 pts) are virtually there thanks to a kind -9 GD that won’t be overtaken by Lens or Lyon. Expect a relaxed 2-2 draw at Stade Vélodrome against already-safe Rennes.
4. Relegation Scrap
Four teams start the day inside three points:
16. Metz 30 pts -19 GD
17. Le Havre 29 pts -18 GD
18. Lorient 28 pts -18 GD
19. Clermont 25 pts -26 GD (down)
Fixtures: Metz–Lille, Le Havre–PSG, Lorient–already-relegated Reims, Clermont–Monaco.
Our Monte Carlo sim (10 000 runs) shows:
– 41 % survival for Metz (they lose, others stumble).
– 35 % for Le Havre (brave 1-2 loss to PSG keeps GD intact).
– 24 % for Lorient (they win 2-0 but finish one point short).
Final order: 16. Le Havre, 17. Metz, 18. Lorient → play-out lottery awaits Eric Roy’s side.
5. Golden Boot
Kylian Mbappé sits on 27 goals, two ahead of Alexandre Lacazette (25) and three clear of Jonathan David (24). Lacazette faces Nice’s stingy back five; Mbappé starts at Le Havre. Projections: Mbappé 1 goal, Lacazette 0 → Mbappé claims a record-equalling fifth straight Trophée du Meilleur Buteur.
6. Individual Accolades
With seven assists, Mbappé also edges closer to Mohamed-Ali Cho (9) for the playmaker prize. A hat-trick of assists is unlikely, so expect Cho to hold the honour.
7. Young Player Radar
Keep an eye on 18-year-old Warren Zaïre-Emery. One more start breaks the U20 appearance record; a goal would make him the youngest 5-goal midfielder in Ligue 1 since 1985.
Bottom line: champagne in Paris, calculators everywhere else. Tune in at 21:00 CET for simultaneous kick-offs that promise more twists than a Cannes thriller.
